Nigeria’s private sector rebounded strongly in February, with the Stanbic IBTC PMI jumping to 53.2 from January’s 49.7 contraction, signaling solid improvement in business conditions.
The latest PMI reading, unveiled on Monday by S&P Global in collaboration with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), paints a picture of renewed vitality in the private sector.
As a diffusion index, the PMI serves as a barometer for economic health: scores above 50.0 indicate expansion compared to the prior month, while those below signal decline.
February’s figure not only crossed this critical threshold but also highlighted a “solid monthly improvement,” according to the report, continuing a trend of gains since December 2024—barring January’s temporary setback.
At the heart of this rebound was a resurgence in new orders, fueled by strengthening customer demand and enhanced product affordability. Surveyed firms reported a spike in client numbers and the introduction of fresh product lines, which in turn propelled output to its strongest growth rate in four months.
This uptick was broad-based, with all four monitored sectors—agriculture, manufacturing, services, and wholesale/retail—registering expansion. Notably, the wholesale and retail segment flipped from contraction in January to growth, reflecting a broader consumer revival.
Employment trends further bolstered the positive narrative. Staffing levels rose for the ninth straight month, accelerating to the quickest pace since October 2025. Yet, even with this hiring spree, companies grappled with mounting work backlogs—the sharpest accumulation since May 2020. Challenges included delayed payments from clients, shortages of staff and materials, and persistent power supply disruptions, which continue to hamstring operational efficiency in Nigeria’s business landscape.
In response to the influx of orders, firms ramped up purchasing and stockpiled inventories at a marked rate. Supply chains showed signs of smoothing out, with delivery times shortening thanks to timely payments and better traffic flows—factors that could signal incremental improvements in logistics amid ongoing infrastructure upgrades.
Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, attributed the momentum to “stronger customer demand” that encouraged “higher new product offerings at competitive pricing.” He emphasized how output and new orders “regained momentum” in February, providing a counterweight to earlier headwinds.
A standout feature of the report was the cooling of inflationary pressures, largely tied to the naira’s recent appreciation. The currency has traded below N1,400 per dollar since late January, bolstered by fortified external reserves, increased offshore foreign exchange inflows, higher remittances, and targeted interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to temper rapid gains. This stability translated into the slowest purchase cost inflation in over six years, though some businesses still flagged elevated prices for animal feed and raw materials.
Wage pressures persisted, driven by cost-of-living adjustments, but overall input costs moderated enough for companies to hike output prices at the mildest rate since January 2020. This softer pricing environment could offer relief to consumers and businesses alike, potentially paving the way for sustained recovery.
Looking forward, business confidence ticked upward in February, though it remained tempered. Firms cited advertising initiatives and expansion strategies as primary sources of optimism for the coming year. Stanbic IBTC forecasts Nigeria’s real GDP to expand by 3.86% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, accelerating to 4.1% for the full year.
This projection hinges on boosted infrastructure investments, advancements in livestock development, relaxed trade barriers, and capital inflows into oil, gas, and manufacturing sectors. The Dangote refinery’s forward linkages are expected to amplify these gains, fostering job creation and supply chain efficiencies.
The PMI survey, drawn from responses of approximately 400 private sector entities spanning agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail, and services, was conducted between February 10 and 25, 2026.
As Nigeria navigates post-pandemic recovery amid global uncertainties, this latest data offers a glimmer of hope, though structural hurdles like energy reliability and payment delays remain key risks to monitor. Economists will be watching closely for March’s reading to confirm if this February flourish is the start of a lasting upswing.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nigeria’s private sector staged a strong comeback in February 2026, with the Stanbic IBTC PMI jumping to 53.2 from January’s 49.7 contraction.
Renewed customer demand and a more stable naira (trading below ₦1,400/$) drove the fastest output growth in four months, eased inflationary pressures to near six-year lows, and lifted business activity across all monitored sectors—signaling a solid recovery underway after January’s brief
