Nigeria’s poverty rate has climbed to a staggering 63 percent in 2025, even as headline inflation has begun to moderate sharply.
The disclosure comes in the latest Nigeria Development Update released today by the World Bank in Abuja, titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development.”
According to the report, the share of Nigerians living below the poverty line rose from 56 percent in 2023 to 61 percent in 2024 before hitting 63 percent last year—a figure that now translates into roughly 140 million citizens trapped in poverty.
The numbers paint a picture of a country where the benefits of disinflation have yet to reach the majority of households.
“Household incomes have not grown fast enough to offset still-elevated inflation, and poverty has yet to begin declining,” the World Bank stated bluntly. The report explains that the lingering scars of previous inflation shocks continue to erode real incomes, blunting the positive effects of the current easing in price pressures.
External shocks have compounded the problem. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has kept energy, food, and transport costs elevated, hitting low-income families hardest. A loaf of bread or a bus ride to work—essentials for the poorest—remains punishingly expensive even as official inflation figures improve.
Beyond the immediate pain of prices, the bank points to deeper structural failures in Nigeria’s growth model. Economic expansion has been powered largely by the services and industrial sectors, while agriculture, the sector that employs more than half of all poor Nigerians, has lagged badly.
“Growth in the agriculture sector – where more than half of the poor work – has lagged services and industry, constraining the pace of poverty reduction,” the report noted. This sectoral imbalance has left the most vulnerable populations on the sidelines, weakening the traditional link between national growth and improved living standards.
The result, the World Bank warns, is that without deliberate, job-rich, and inclusive growth, poverty reduction will remain frustratingly slow.
Looking ahead, the report offers a cautious glimmer of hope. With inflation expected to continue easing and macroeconomic conditions stabilizing, poverty is projected to begin a gradual decline from 2026, falling to around 59 percent by 2028.
Lower food prices and moderate economic growth should help. Yet the bank is quick to temper optimism: weak job creation, chronically low agricultural productivity, and stubborn inequality will continue to act as brakes on progress.
Targeted reforms to boost livelihoods and expand access to productive employment are therefore “critical,” the report stresses. Without them, the country risks locking in today’s high poverty levels for years to come.
The document also draws a direct line between persistent poverty and stunted human capital. Poorer households face significantly worse outcomes in nutrition, health, and early childhood development—disadvantages that, the bank argues, will only reinforce long-term inequality and hold back Nigeria’s future.
As the report makes clear, the numbers are not merely statistics; they represent millions of Nigerian families for whom the promise of “Nigeria’s tomorrow” remains painfully out of reach.
For now, the challenge for policymakers is to ensure that today’s macroeconomic gains finally begin to translate into tangible improvements in the lives of the 140 million citizens still waiting for relief.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Despite sharply easing inflation, Nigeria’s poverty rate climbed to 63% in 2025, leaving about 140 million Nigerians below the poverty line.
Macroeconomic gains are not reaching ordinary households: household incomes have not kept pace with past inflation shocks, while growth in services and industry has bypassed agriculture, where most poor Nigerians earn their living.
Without urgent, targeted reforms for job-rich and inclusive growth, especially in agriculture, poverty will continue to decline only slowly.
