Oil prices rose on Friday on fresh Saudi supply disruptions and near-total paralysis in the Strait of Hormuz, despite easing nerves over the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, rose 96 cents, or 1 percent, to $96.88 a barrel by 06:04 GMT. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 78 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $98.65 a barrel.
Yet both contracts remained on track for their steepest weekly drop since June 2024 — roughly an 11 percent slide — after investors began pricing in the possibility that the fragile truce might hold long enough to ease the worst of the supply crunch.
The uptick in prices reflected a sharp reminder that the Middle East conflict, now in its sixth week, is far from over. On Thursday, Saudi state news agency SPA reported that attacks on the kingdom’s energy infrastructure had slashed production capacity by about 600,000 barrels per day and cut throughput on the vital East-West Pipeline by roughly 700,000 barrels per day.
The pipeline has become Riyadh’s primary export route while the Hormuz chokepoint remains effectively closed. ANZ analysts noted in a Friday research note that the Saudi disclosures “heightened concerns of further oil supply disruptions.”
Shipping data painted an even starker picture. Despite the ceasefire announced on Tuesday and brokered by Pakistan, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—the artery carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas—stood at well below 10 percent of normal volumes on Thursday.
Iran has asserted its authority by instructing vessels to hug its territorial waters, a move that has kept most international tankers at anchor inside the Gulf. Hundreds of laden vessels remain stranded, according to tracking firms.
The truce, which both Washington and Tehran hailed as a breakthrough, was meant to pause nearly six weeks of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that began on Feb. 28. Yet fighting has continued in pockets, and analysts caution that Pakistan may struggle to convert the short-term pause into a durable peace agreement capable of reopening the waterway.
Tehran has signaled it intends to extract fees from ships transiting the strait as part of any final deal, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on April 7. Western governments and the United Nations’ shipping agency have firmly rejected the idea, calling it a threat to freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
John Paisie, president of energy consultancy Stratas Advisors, warned that if flows through Hormuz remain at current depressed levels, Brent prices could surge as high as $190 a barrel. “If Iran allows increasing flows, the price of oil will be more moderate,” he added, “but still well above pre-war levels.”
Mukesh Sahdev, founder and CEO of X Analysts, echoed that view, saying the “key variable now is how flows through the Strait of Hormuz actually resume—not whether they reopen.”
The human and economic toll of the conflict is mounting. JPMorgan estimates that nearly 50 infrastructure assets across the Gulf have been damaged by drone and missile strikes since late February, taking some 2.4 million barrels per day of refining capacity offline.
On the diplomatic front, Israel signaled a potential opening for de-escalation elsewhere in the region, saying it was ready to begin direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible.” The move came as nerves eased slightly over the U.S.-Iran truce, though analysts cautioned that any lasting resolution would require far more than a two-week breathing space.
For now, the market is caught between two competing forces: the immediate pain of Saudi outages and a paralyzed Hormuz on one hand and the hope that diplomacy—however tenuous—might eventually unclog the world’s most important oil artery on the other. Traders will be watching the weekend closely for any sign that the ceasefire is holding or fracturing further.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Oil prices rose modestly on Friday to around $97 per barrel for Brent amid fresh anxiety over Saudi supply disruptions, but they are still heading for an 11% weekly loss.
The single most critical factor remains the near-total paralysis of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which is severely restricting global oil flows despite the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
Until meaningful volumes resume through this chokepoint, prices will stay elevated and volatile well above pre-conflict levels.
