Gold prices remained largely unchanged on Friday, dipping marginally as traders weighed ongoing uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical frictions between the United States and Iran.
The precious metal is poised to cap off its seventh straight month of gains, underscoring its enduring appeal as a safe-haven asset in turbulent times.
Spot gold eased 0.1% to $5,181.18 per ounce as of 0837 GMT, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. Despite the slight pullback, the yellow metal has surged 6.5% so far in February, pushing its cumulative gains over the past seven months to an impressive 58%.
This remarkable rally has been fueled by a cocktail of economic and geopolitical factors, drawing investors seeking refuge from volatility in equities and currencies.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery, meanwhile, inched up 0.1% to $5,198.10, signaling mild optimism among futures traders. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tumbled to a three-month low earlier in the session, further bolstering gold’s attractiveness. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, making it a more appealing option for portfolio diversification.
Analysts point to two primary drivers propping up gold’s resilience. “There are two things supporting gold,” explained Soni Kumari, an analyst at ANZ. “First is the tariff uncertainty which is there in the market right now, and on the other hand, the Iran and U.S. situation.” These elements have created a perfect storm for safe-haven demand, even as broader markets grapple with mixed economic signals.
The U.S.-Iran dynamic has been particularly influential. Indirect talks between the two nations resumed in Geneva on Thursday, mediated by Oman, focusing on their protracted nuclear dispute. Omani officials reported progress, with plans for technical-level discussions to continue next week in Vienna.
However, the absence of a definitive breakthrough has left geopolitical risks simmering just below the surface. “The latest rounds of talks have not produced a clear outcome, leaving geopolitical risks present but not escalating,” noted Linh Tran, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com. “This has kept gold at elevated levels, though it has not yet provided sufficient momentum to establish a sustainable bullish trend.”
Compounding these tensions are fresh developments in U.S. trade policy. The United States implemented a temporary 10% global import tariff earlier this week, with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announcing that the rate would escalate to 15% for select countries.
This move has sparked concerns about potential retaliatory actions from trading partners, which could disrupt global supply chains and stoke inflationary pressures. Investors fear that heightened trade barriers might slow economic growth, prompting a flight to safety in assets like gold.
On the domestic front, U.S. economic data offered a nuanced picture. New applications for unemployment benefits rose modestly last week, while the overall unemployment rate held steady in February. These figures suggest a labor market that remains resilient but not immune to broader uncertainties, potentially reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rates—a factor that historically supports gold prices.
The bullish sentiment extended beyond gold to other precious metals. Spot silver climbed 1.7% to $89.87 per ounce, on pace for a 6.2% monthly advance, driven by industrial demand and its role as a silver-lining hedge.
Platinum surged 4.1% to $2,365.33 per ounce, hitting a four-week high amid supply concerns from major producers. Palladium also gained 2.1% to $1,821.28, buoyed by automotive sector recovery signals.
Market watchers anticipate that gold could test new highs if U.S.-Iran negotiations falter or if tariff escalations lead to wider trade disputes. However, a swift resolution to either issue might cap upside potential, potentially leading to profit-taking. As Tran from XS.com aptly summarized, the current environment keeps gold “elevated but not explosive,” a delicate balance that has defined its stellar performance over the past seven months.
Investors will be closely monitoring next week’s Vienna talks and any updates from the U.S. Trade Representative’s office for clues on the metal’s next move. For now, gold’s safe-haven status appears unshaken, a testament to its timeless role in an unpredictable world.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Gold is on track for its seventh consecutive monthly gain, up a staggering 58% over that period, and remains steady around $5,180–$5,200 despite minor daily fluctuations.
The single most important factor driving this sustained rally right now is persistent uncertainty—specifically, U.S. tariff policy risks combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions.
These twin uncertainties continue to fuel strong safe-haven demand for gold, outweighing mixed U.S. economic data and keeping the metal elevated even without a fresh crisis.
