Global oil markets lurched higher on Wednesday, with Brent and WTI both touching their strongest levels since June 11, as traders confronted the prospect that not one but two of the world’s most critical oil arteries could be strangled simultaneously.
The rally, with Brent up 3.12% to $93.85 a barrel and WTI up 3.47% to $87.27, came as the conflict between Washington and Tehran ground into an eleventh straight night of American strikes. U.S. Central Command confirmed it had completed the 11th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, saying assets had targeted Iranian military operations centers and maritime capabilities.
The scale of the confrontation has grown far beyond an isolated skirmish: a U.S. official said American military casualties had crossed 500, above the Pentagon’s publicly reported figure, while Kuwait reported that Iranian strikes had damaged desalination and power facilities for a fourth consecutive night, threatening a key source of drinking water.
What has jolted energy markets this week is not the Hormuz standoff alone but its sudden multiplication. The Houthis, framing their move as retaliation for Saudi strikes on Sanaa’s main airport, announced a naval blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a waterway that has taken on outsized importance precisely because Hormuz has been effectively shut down by the wider war.
Shipping analytics firm Kpler has quantified just how serious a dual-chokepoint scenario could be. A simultaneous, prolonged disruption of both Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz could affect maritime routes carrying roughly a quarter of the world’s oil supply, the firm warned, adding that under “selective targeting,” compliant commercial traffic could fall 40–50% within weeks, while a full blockade could push Bab el-Mandeb crossings below 15 vessels a day within days.
The diplomatic backdrop offers little reassurance. The Houthis have accused Saudi Arabia of laying an “aggressive siege” against them, while the Saudi-led coalition has said it would respond to the naval blockade with force, calling the threat a violation of international law.
Analysts say the stakes for global supply are unusually high because Bab el-Mandeb has effectively become the market’s shock absorber.
One analyst noted that any disruption there would threaten not just Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes able to offset the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic, adding that a rebound in oil prices could be substantial if a ceasefire fails to materialize while the Houthi threat intensifies.
Efforts to halt the fighting have so far gone nowhere. Talks in Pakistan aimed at reviving a collapsed ceasefire made no progress, even as the conflict expanded across multiple fronts and deepened concerns over regional stability and energy supply.
President Trump, for his part, has signaled the campaign may widen rather than wind down: he said the U.S. would probably soon strike the area of Pickaxe Mountain, a fortified underground facility believed linked to Iran’s nuclear program, while also saying Washington had no interest in negotiating unless Tehran was ready for a “meaningful” discussion.
Tehran’s response was blunt it warned that any attack on the nuclear site would be treated as an expansion of the war across the region, threatening consequences for U.S. interests and allies.
The conflict’s reach is no longer confined to Iran and the Gulf’s shipping lanes: Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan all reported intercepting aerial attacks on Tuesday, underscoring how far the fighting has spread beyond the original combatants.
On the water, the response has been immediate and visible. Vessels that would normally hug the Yemeni coast en route to Asia are instead adding thousands of nautical miles to their voyages, rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope or funneling toward the Suez Canal, a costly hedge against becoming the next target in a strait now bracketed by hostile forces on both sides.
Producers, meanwhile, are looking past the current crisis toward structural fixes that could take years to materialize. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE have been exploring new or expanded overland pipelines as an alternative to seaborne exports, though any such infrastructure remains years away from completion.
In the meantime, the kingdom’s pivot to Red Sea loading points like Yanbu, originally conceived as the safe alternative to a closed Hormuz, has itself become exposed, with tankers now caught in the same waters the Houthis are threatening to close.
For now, the physical market’s stress is only partially reflected in inventory data: even as U.S. crude and distillate stocks built last week, according to the API, the broader signal from the region is one of tightening risk rather than easing.
With CENTCOM signaling no pause in operations and Tehran vowing escalation rather than retreat if its nuclear infrastructure is struck, traders are pricing in the possibility that Wednesday’s six-week high is a way station rather than a peak.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Oil is spiking because the market now faces a double chokepoint threat: the Strait of Hormuz is already effectively shut by the 11-day U.S.-Iran war, and the Houthis are now threatening to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait too, the very route Saudi Arabia had been using as its workaround.
With no ceasefire in sight and both fronts escalating rather than cooling, the real risk isn’t just higher prices today; it’s that roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil could lose its safe passage at the same time, with no quick fix available.
