Nearly two-thirds of Nigerians want interest rates reduced, according to the CBN‘s April 2026 Inflation Expectations Survey Report, but the apex bank is widely expected to hold rates steady when its Monetary Policy Committee convenes for its 305th meeting this week.
The survey, which covered 3,587 respondents comprising 1,923 firms and 1,664 households drawn from across the country, found that 63.3 percent of respondents favored a rate cut, 26.0 percent wanted rates retained at current levels, and just 10.7 percent supported a further hike.
The CBN noted “a strong desire for a reduction in interest rates” alongside high public engagement with its communications at 92.1 percent and a general perception of transparency at 93.3 percent, unusually strong marks for any institution in Nigeria’s current economic climate.
Yet the broader data tells a more complicated story. Inflation perception worsened sharply in April, with 67.2 percent of respondents describing prices as high, up from 56.4 percent in March.
The Inflation Perception Index stood at 40.5 points, confirming that Nigerians still consider price pressures elevated. The rise cut across both households and businesses; the proportion of households reporting high inflation climbed from 61.7 percent to 68.8 percent, while the figure for businesses jumped from 51.9 percent to 65.9 percent within the same period.
Households earning below ₦70,000 monthly recorded the highest inflation perception at 77.9 per cent, compared to 46.6 per cent among those earning between ₦250,001 and ₦350,000. Rural households, too, reported higher inflation perception than their urban counterparts, 70.4 percent versus 67.6 percent.
Energy costs, transportation, exchange rate pressures, insecurity, and infrastructure deficits were consistently identified as the top drivers of rising prices.
Despite current hardship, respondents expressed cautious optimism about the medium term. While 58.5 percent expected inflation to rise next month, the proportion anticipating a decline grew steadily from 11.0 percent over one month to 20.4 percent over a six-month horizon, a tentative sign that public confidence in eventual price moderation is beginning to build.
The MPC last cut the benchmark monetary policy rate by 50 basis points to 26.5 percent at its February 2026 meeting, in what was described as a cautious shift in policy stance after headline inflation had recorded eleven consecutive months of deceleration. That modest cut had raised hopes of further easing. But those hopes may have to wait.
Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 15.69 percent in April 2026, up from 15.38 percent in March, and eight economists and analysts polled by BusinessDay now widely expect the committee to hold the MPR steady at 26.5 percent, citing the need to preserve foreign exchange stability and monitor resurgent price pressures before adjusting borrowing costs further.
Analysts have also flagged that geopolitical risks, domestic liquidity pressures, and election-related spending ahead of the 2027 political cycle could complicate inflation management in the months ahead, making a cautious, wait-and-see approach the most likely outcome from this week’s sitting.
The cruel paradox at the heart of this week’s decision is hard to ignore: the Nigerians crying out loudest for cheaper credit are the very ones whose economic reality makes cutting rates the most difficult.
Until inflation is convincingly tamed, the CBN will likely keep prioritizing stability over relief. Governor Cardoso is expected to announce the committee’s decision on Wednesday afternoon.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
The CBN’s own survey confirms what most Nigerians already know: prices are painfully high, and borrowing costs are crippling.
While the public’s desire for rate cuts is overwhelming, rising inflation makes it nearly impossible for the CBN to oblige right now.
The MPC meeting this week is therefore less about what Nigerians need and more about what the economy can safely absorb.
Until inflation is firmly under control, relief will remain out of reach, and those at the bottom of the income ladder will continue paying the highest price for a crisis they did least to create.
