NGX transactions surged to ₦2.404 trillion in the first two months of 2026, more than double the ₦1.116 trillion recorded in the same period last year, according to the exchange’s latest portfolio investment report.
The figures, which capture equities transactions as of February 28, 2026, reveal a market gathering considerable momentum, powered overwhelmingly by domestic investors whose appetite for equities appears largely undimmed by the macroeconomic headwinds that continue to shadow Africa’s largest economy.
February proved to be a particularly striking month. Total transactions climbed to N1.542 trillion—a month-on-month jump of 78.93% from the N0.862 trillion recorded in January.
The figures suggest that what analysts had attributed to a seasonal January slowdown was precisely that: a temporary lull before a significant resumption of trading activity.
“The January dip is fairly typical of the market’s seasonal rhythm,” one market analyst noted. “What matters is the velocity of the recovery, and February’s numbers are very telling.”
Driving the February rebound was an 87.65% month-on-month surge in domestic transactions, which rose from N747.83 billion in January to N1.403 trillion in February. That single figure — N1.403 trillion — represented 90.99% of all market activity for the month, leaving foreign transactions to account for only the remaining N139.03 billion, or 9.01%.
The story of Nigeria’s equities market in 2026 is, in many respects, the story of domestic investors filling a vacuum. Where foreign capital has retreated to the sidelines, local money — both institutional and retail — has stepped forward with considerable force.
Within the domestic segment, institutional investors led the charge in February, contributing N854.83 billion, which amounted to 60.99% of domestic activity. Retail investors were not idle either, adding N548.50 billion to the tally. More telling is the pace of growth: institutional participation surged by 120.36% month-on-month, far outpacing the already-solid 52.42% increase recorded among retail investors.
Year-to-date, the exchange has recorded N2.151 trillion in domestic transactions against N253.17 billion in foreign transactions—a ratio that speaks volumes about the structural shift underway in Nigerian capital markets.
Foreign investors present a more nuanced picture. On the surface, their participation grew in February: total foreign transactions rose by 21.81% month-on-month, from N114.14 billion in January to N139.03 billion in February. Inflows climbed by 39.39% to N66.71 billion, while outflows grew at a slower rate of 9.12% to N72.32 billion.
Yet despite these encouraging directional shifts, the market recorded a net capital outflow of N5.61 billion in February — a figure that underscores the lingering wariness among offshore investors.
While the faster growth in inflows relative to outflows hints at a gradual thaw, foreign participants have not yet tipped the balance toward net investment. Risk perception, exchange rate concerns, and global portfolio rebalancing appear to be keeping many institutional foreign investors on the fence.
To appreciate the scale of what is happening in 2026, it is instructive to look back. Long-term data from the NGX shows that domestic transactions have grown by 160.83% since 2007, rising from N3.556 trillion to N9.275 trillion in 2025.
Foreign transactions, meanwhile, have expanded by an even more dramatic 329.87% over the same period, from N616 billion to N2.648 trillion — a testament to the periodic surges in offshore interest that have punctuated Nigeria’s market history.
In 2025, domestic investors accounted for 78% of total market activity compared to foreign investors’ 22%—a split that 2026 data suggests is widening further in favor of local participants.
If the first two months are any guide, 2026 is shaping up to be a strong year for Nigeria’s equities market. The 115.33% year-on-year growth in cumulative transactions is not a marginal improvement — it is a wholesale expansion of market activity, occurring even as foreign investors remain largely cautious.
The durability of this growth will ultimately depend on whether domestic investor confidence is sustained in the face of continued inflationary pressure, currency volatility, and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. A meaningful return of foreign capital — which would require clearer signals on monetary policy and improvements in the business environment — could amplify these gains further.
For now, the market’s internal engine is firing. And in the absence of foreign momentum, domestic investors — institutional and retail alike — have shown they are more than willing to carry the load.
Nigeria’s equities market is in a period of strong momentum, but it remains a domestically driven story, with foreign investors yet to return in force.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nigeria’s stock market has recorded a stunning 115% year-on-year surge in transactions to ₦2.4 trillion in the first two months of 2026, and the engine behind it is almost entirely domestic.
Local investors, led by institutions, are carrying the market, accounting for over 90% of February’s activity. Foreign investors, while showing early signs of returning, are still pulling out more money than they put in.
The NGX is thriving, but its rally rests on a single pillar. Until foreign capital makes a decisive comeback, the market’s strength — impressive as it is — remains one-dimensional and vulnerable to any shock in domestic investor confidence.
