Nigeria’s naira came under fresh pressure on Tuesday, weakening to N1,389 per US dollar in the official window, even as a surprise two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran triggered a broad rally in global risk assets and a retreat in the safe-haven US dollar.
According to data published on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s website, the naira closed at N1,389/$ on Tuesday — a depreciation of N6.25 from the N1,382.75/$ recorded before the Easter break. Intraday trading at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) saw the currency swing between a low of N1,381/$ and a high of N1,390/$, settling at an average of N1,386.3/$.
The modest slide occurred against a backdrop of renewed optimism in international markets following the ceasefire announcement. After weeks of escalating rhetoric and threats from US President Donald Trump — including dire warnings that failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could lead to catastrophic consequences — a last-minute diplomatic effort, reportedly mediated with help from Pakistan, produced a fragile two-week truce. Iran agreed to allow safe passage through the critical oil chokepoint, easing fears of major disruptions to global energy supplies.
Global currencies reacted swiftly. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.7% to 158.50 per dollar, the euro climbed 0.7% to $1.1677, and the British pound rose 0.8% to $1.3403. Commodity-linked currencies also gained ground, with the Australian dollar up 1.2% to $0.7063 and the New Zealand dollar advancing 1.1% to $0.5795. The US dollar index tumbled to 98.943 — its lowest level since March 11 — extending a three-day decline as investor risk appetite improved.
For Nigeria, however, the positive global sentiment offered little immediate relief. Analysts noted that the naira has remained under sustained pressure despite occasional periods of stability, reflecting deeper structural challenges including import demand, capital flow dynamics, and the Central Bank’s management of external buffers.
Compounding concerns, Nigeria’s external reserves declined by approximately $850 million over a three-week period, falling to $49.18 billion between March 11 and April 2, 2026, according to CBN figures. The drawdown reverses some of the earlier gains built up in the reserves and signals ongoing interventions or outflows that continue to test the naira’s resilience.
Market participants are closely watching whether the ceasefire holds and whether it translates into lower oil prices or renewed foreign investor inflows into emerging markets like Nigeria. While the truce has calmed nerves over potential supply chain shocks in the Middle East, the naira’s performance remains closely tied to domestic factors: the level of dollar supply from oil earnings and non-oil exports, the effectiveness of the Central Bank’s forex management framework, and broader macroeconomic stability.
In the parallel market, the naira showed mixed signals, with reports indicating appreciation to around N1,396/$ in some segments even as the official window reflected depreciation. The spread between official and black-market rates remains relatively contained compared to previous volatile periods.
As the two-week ceasefire window begins, Nigerian policymakers face a delicate balancing act. A sustained de-escalation in the Middle East could support global growth and commodity prices — potentially benefiting Nigeria’s oil revenues — but any breakdown in the truce risks renewed volatility that could further strain the naira and reserves.
For now, the currency’s slight retreat serves as a reminder that while global headwinds may be easing, Nigeria’s battle for exchange rate stability is still very much an internal one, fought daily in the corridors of the CBN and the trading floors of the NFEM.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Despite the global market rally triggered by the US-Israel-Iran two-week ceasefire, which boosted investor confidence and weakened the US dollar, the Nigerian naira still depreciated to N1,389 per dollar from N1,382.75 before the Easter break.
Nigeria’s external reserves continue to decline sharply — dropping by about $850 million in three weeks to $49.18 billion — underscoring that the naira’s weakness is driven more by domestic pressures and reserve drawdowns than by international geopolitical developments. Global calm offers limited relief when internal buffers are steadily eroding.
