Nigeria’s inflation rate edged lower in January 2026, offering a modest but welcome respite to households battered by years of high prices, according to fresh data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on February 16.
The headline inflation rate stood at 15.10% year-on-year, a slight dip of 0.05 percentage points from December 2025’s 15.15%. This marks the tenth consecutive monthly slowdown in the headline figure, continuing a disinflationary trend that has gained momentum since late 2025.
The more striking relief came on a month-on-month basis, where the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a contraction of -2.88% in January—meaning average prices of goods and services actually fell compared to December. This represented a sharp reversal from December’s modest 0.54% increase and a 3.42 percentage point swing overall. The NBS attributed this outright price decline to broad-based easing, particularly in food costs.
The sharpest relief for ordinary Nigerians arrived in the food basket, which accounts for the largest share of household budgets. Food inflation plunged to 8.89% year-on-year in January, down dramatically from 29.63% a year earlier—a drop of 20.73 percentage points.
For the first time in a decade, food inflation entered single-digit territory. On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell even more steeply at -6.02%, compared to a milder -0.36% decline in December.
The NBS highlighted falling average prices for key staples driving this improvement, including water yams, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soybeans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava tubers, and cowpeas.
These reductions likely reflect a combination of improved local harvests in late 2025, steadier foreign exchange conditions aiding imports of certain inputs, and recent policy measures such as targeted import waivers on select food items that eased supply bottlenecks.
Core inflation—which strips out volatile food and energy components to gauge underlying pressures—also moderated, coming in at 17.72% year-on-year (down 7.55 points from January 2025’s 25.27%) and -1.69% month-on-month.
Urban and rural areas both saw price relief, though patterns varied slightly. In cities, headline inflation eased to 15.36% year-on-year (from 29.45% a year earlier), with a monthly contraction of -2.72%.
Rural inflation fell to 14.44% year-on-year (from 25.04%), accompanied by an even deeper monthly drop of -3.29%, suggesting stronger price declines in countryside markets for agricultural goods.
Despite these positive signals, the longer-term picture remains elevated. The 12-month average headline inflation rate ending January 2026 stood at 21.97%, up from 17.59% in the prior comparable period, indicating that cumulative price pressures over the past year are still significant.
Similarly, the 12-month average food inflation eased substantially to 20.29% (from 38.47%), and core to 22.84% (down from 27.24%), but these averages underscore that Nigeria has only recently begun emerging from a prolonged period of acute inflationary stress.
Economists and market watchers see the latest print as bolstering the case for further monetary easing. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet in the coming days (February 23–24, 2026), its first rate-setting session of the year.
With inflation surprising on the downside relative to some analyst forecasts that had anticipated a rise toward 19%, the data strengthens arguments for resuming the rate-cutting cycle that began in late 2025.
For millions of Nigerians, the January numbers translate to tangible, if tentative, breathing room at market stalls and in household budgets—particularly for food, the single biggest expense for most families.
Whether this slowdown proves durable will depend on sustained supply-side improvements, exchange-rate stability, and prudent fiscal and monetary management in the months ahead. For now, however, the NBS figures offer the clearest sign yet that the peak of Nigeria’s recent inflationary surge may be firmly behind it.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nigeria’s inflation dropped to 15.10% in January 2026, down from 27.61% a year earlier—a remarkable turnaround driven primarily by sharply falling food prices. Consumers experienced actual deflation, with prices declining 2.88% month-on-month as staples like yams, beans, palm oil, and eggs became cheaper.
However, the picture is mixed: while the current trend is positive, the twelve-month average inflation of 21.97% shows Nigerians still absorbed significant cumulative price increases over the past year. Both urban and rural areas saw relief, though costs remain elevated compared to two years ago.
Prices are finally moving in the right direction after years of pain, but sustainability depends on maintaining stable exchange rates, fuel costs, and agricultural output. For now, Nigerian households are getting modest breathing room at the market.
