Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves are under fresh pressure, having shed $731 million in just three weeks as the Central Bank of Nigeria grapples with mounting financial obligations.
Data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that reserves fell from $49.18 billion on April 1 to $48.45 billion as of April 23, representing an average weekly decline of roughly $233 million.
While the figures stop short of triggering immediate alarm bells, they mark a continuation of a worrying trend that has persisted since March and raise pointed questions about the durability of the gains Nigeria’s foreign exchange position had recorded in the opening weeks of the year.
A closer look at the trajectory of reserve movements through April paints a picture of a decline that was sharpest early in the month before moderating as April wore on.
Between April 1 and April 10, reserves dropped from $49.18 billion to $48.81 billion, a fall of $370 million in just ten days, suggesting particularly heavy foreign exchange outflows during that period.
Economists say this early-month drawdown was likely driven by a combination of CBN interventions in the foreign exchange market to defend the naira and the settlement of external financial obligations falling due at the start of the quarter.
The pace of decline slowed considerably in the middle weeks of the month. Between April 13 and April 17, reserves eased from $48.72 billion to $48.62 billion, a comparatively modest reduction of $100 million across four trading days.
The final stretch of the tracked period, from April 20 to April 23, saw reserves slip marginally from $48.54 billion to $48.45 billion, pointing to a further deceleration in outflows.
Market watchers suggest the slowdown in the latter half of April may reflect either a deliberate reduction in CBN intervention intensity or a modest improvement in foreign currency inflows, possibly from oil revenues or diaspora remittances, providing some natural support to the reserves position.
Despite the headline-grabbing figures, Nigeria’s monetary authorities have sought to temper public anxiety. CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso, speaking recently, said the decline in external reserves should not be a cause for concern, a position that reflects the Central Bank’s view that the drawdown is a managed and temporary feature of its broader monetary strategy rather than a sign of fundamental vulnerability.
The governor’s assurances, however, have not fully quieted observers who note that the April decline follows a similar period of reserve pressure in March. Data shows that reserves fell from above $50.08 billion on March 12 to $49.61 billion by March 23, a loss of nearly $470 million in just eleven days. Taken together, the two months point to a sustained period of external liquidity stress that extends well beyond seasonal fluctuations.
To be fair to the CBN’s position, the broader context offers some reassurance. Despite the recent drawdowns, Nigeria’s reserve levels remain substantially above where they stood at the same time in 2025, when external reserves languished at approximately $37.83 billion.
That year-on-year improvement of more than $10 billion represents a significant rebuilding of Nigeria’s external buffers achieved through a combination of multilateral borrowing, improved oil revenues, and tighter monetary policy under the Cardoso-led CBN.
What makes the current decline more noteworthy, however, is that it represents a reversal of the positive momentum that characterized the start of 2026. In the first 22 days of January alone, reserves climbed by approximately $509 million, signaling what many had hoped was the beginning of a sustained recovery in Nigeria’s external position. The April figures suggest that optimism may have been premature.
Nigeria is no stranger to short-term reserve volatility. In October 2018, the country’s reserves fell by $1.1 billion within just two weeks, a sharper drawdown than what had been recorded this April—before stabilizing as oil market conditions improved.
That episode, and others like it, underline a structural reality about Nigeria’s foreign exchange position: it remains acutely sensitive to oil price movements, the pace of CBN intervention, and the size of the country’s external debt obligations falling due at any given time.
These three forces, oil revenues, FX interventions, and external commitments, continue to dictate the rhythm of reserve movements today. With global oil markets facing uncertainty amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and OPEC+ production decisions, Nigeria’s ability to replenish its reserves through export earnings remains subject to factors largely beyond Abuja’s control.
The critical question facing the CBN in the coming weeks is whether the moderation in outflows seen in the second half of April will hold—or whether fresh pressures, including potential naira volatility, upcoming debt service payments, or a softening in crude prices, could reignite more aggressive reserve depletion.
For now, at $48.45 billion, Nigeria’s reserves remain above the psychologically significant $48 billion threshold and comfortably above the import cover benchmarks typically cited by international financial institutions. But the direction of travel, if sustained, will demand careful monitoring.
For ordinary Nigerians, the reserves story is ultimately a story about the naira—about whether the country can maintain enough foreign currency firepower to prevent a return to the sharp depreciation episodes that devastated purchasing power in recent years. On that score, the CBN’s next moves will be watched very closely indeed.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nigeria’s external reserves lost $731 million in three weeks, continuing a trend of drawdowns that stretches back through March. While the CBN governor has downplayed concerns and current levels remain well above last year’s $37.83 billion, the decline reverses the promising gains recorded in early 2026.
Nigeria’s foreign exchange buffers are under real and sustained pressure, driven by FX interventions, external debt obligations, and oil revenue uncertainty. Until inflows consistently outpace outflows, the naira, and by extension, the cost of living for ordinary Nigerians, remains vulnerable.
