Former Secretary-General of the pan-Yoruba socio-political group Afenifere and a leading figure in NADECO, Ayo Opadokun, has asserted that the persistent insecurity plaguing parts of Nigeria is the result of deliberate planning by destructive forces rather than a coincidence or spontaneous breakdown of order.
Opadokun made this assertion on Sunday while speaking on the sidelines of his installation as the Grand Patron of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), Offa Local Government Area chapter in Kwara State. According to him, bandits and insurgents operating across the country are receiving backing from various sponsors with vested interests.
“Some Nigerians, including agents who want to destabilise Nigeria and those who don’t want this government, had taken far-reaching decisions over and ahead of Nigeria a long time ago,” he said.
Describing the country’s security situation as deeply troubling, the elder statesman noted that the Federal Government had previously been cautioned against allowing a scenario where non-state actors wield weapons superior to those of the conventional armed forces.
“But they never listened,” he added.
He went further to recount an experience he said underscored the premeditated nature of the crisis. “I can say this without any fear of contradiction from any quarter. I was at Nicon Hilton in August 2022, where there was a four-day powerful meeting of elements comprising some Nigerians and Sahel region structures, planning how to overrun Nigeria. We’re all seeing the outcome now. We all heard what El-Rufai said. So, the current situation is not accidental. It’s a planned thing,” he stated.
Opadokun urged the Federal Government to sustain and intensify its fight against insurgency, stressing that leniency should no longer be extended to bandits or those who sponsor them.
He also commended President Bola Tinubu for what he described as courage in implementing economic reforms, saying the President was “taking a shot at fiscal federalism.”
“Last year, I told you that the tax reforms bill would pass through. The new tax rule is taking a shot at fiscal federalism. By January next year, a large crowd of Nigerians will pay no tax at all, because they don’t need to. What they are earning is not sufficient for them to take care of their welfare, and the state will still be harassing them,” he said.
According to Opadokun, the reforms would significantly affect institutions such as banks, which he accused of exploiting Nigerians. He called on citizens to acknowledge the progress made so far under Tinubu’s administration, while also noting that expectations had not yet been fully met.
“The new tax rule will affect so many institutions like banks. The banks have been ripping us off. People should appreciate what President Tinubu has succeeded in doing thus far. But he has not reached what we desire,” he said.
Speaking from the perspective of NADECO, Opadokun reiterated that the group’s ultimate objective is a return to true constitutional governance, arguing that Nigeria’s current structure was imposed during military rule.
“As NADECO members, our goal is for Nigeria to return to constitutional governance. This unitarised federal government was foisted on us by politicians in uniform. Nigeria has not produced its own home-grown constitution,” he said.
Reflecting on the state of the nation, he said, “Nigeria, as of December 2025, stands at a critical point in its historical journey. The present administration has embarked on far-reaching structural reforms, particularly in the economic sphere, aimed at addressing long-standing systemic weaknesses. These reforms signal a willingness to confront difficult national realities that previous governments often postponed.”
While acknowledging what he described as positive economic indicators, Opadokun warned that such gains would remain meaningless if they did not improve the living conditions of ordinary Nigerians.
“Today, there are many positive indicators, while the book arithmetic indicates a positive outlook. But these positive indicators will remain elitist pastimes until they translate into better quality of life for ordinary Nigerians,” he said.
He expressed confidence that President Tinubu would use the remainder of his first term to ensure that economic gains reflect in households across the country, citing recent directives to state governors as encouraging signs.
“Given my relationship with President Tinubu, I believe that he will use the remaining part of his first term to translate the positive indicators into realities on the tables and in the households of Nigerians. His recent directives to the governors are positive indicators of his determination to see his wishes respected and acted upon with dispatch to bring relief to our overburdened Nigerians,” Opadokun stated.
However, he was clear that the immediate effects of the reforms had been harsh for many citizens. “However, it must be stated plainly that the immediate social consequences of these policies have been severe for many Nigerians. Inflation, rising cost of living, declining purchasing power, and pressure on small businesses and fixed-income earners have deepened public hardship. Any honest assessment must acknowledge that the burden of reform has fallen disproportionately on ordinary citizens,” he said.
On governance and leadership, Opadokun said decisiveness must be matched with compassion and transparency, particularly during periods of sacrifice.
“From a governance perspective, the administration has demonstrated decisiveness and confidence rooted in political experience. Yet, in times of national sacrifice, leadership must also be defined by empathy, transparent communication, and deliberate efforts to carry the people along. Policies, no matter how well-intentioned, gain legitimacy only when citizens understand them and feel protected within the process,” he noted.
He also highlighted the ongoing security and cohesion challenges facing the country, stressing that lasting stability goes beyond military action.
“On security and national cohesion, Nigeria continues to face serious challenges. While efforts have been made to strengthen security structures, many communities still experience fear and uncertainty. Beyond force, national stability requires justice, inclusion, fairness, and continuous dialogue among Nigeria’s diverse peoples,” Opadokun said.
Concluding his remarks, the elder statesman cautioned against simplistic judgments of the current administration, describing Nigeria as being in a period of transition.
“It is important to emphasise that Nigeria under this administration cannot be reduced to simple labels of success or failure. The nation is in transition. The ultimate measure of this government will not rest solely on the boldness of its reforms, but on how effectively those reforms translate into dignity, opportunity, and hope for the average Nigerian,” he said.
“As an elder statesman, I urge restraint in public discourse, patience where necessary, but also accountability at all levels of leadership. Constructive criticism, national unity, and a shared commitment to the common good remain essential if Nigeria is to emerge stronger from this difficult but defining period.”
What you should know
Ayo Opadokun argues that Nigeria’s insecurity is the product of deliberate planning by internal and regional actors, not accidental failure.
He claims security threats were long anticipated and inadequately addressed, allowing non-state actors to grow stronger. While praising President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms and tax policies as steps toward fiscal federalism, he warns that rising hardship, inflation, and declining purchasing power have placed a heavy burden on ordinary Nigerians.
Opadokun calls for tougher action against insurgents, greater empathy in governance, and reforms that directly improve citizens’ living conditions.
