A growing number of Nigerians are expressing cautious optimism about the country’s inflation trajectory, according to fresh data from the Central Bank of Nigeria that suggests the tide may be turning in Africa’s most populous economy’s battle against soaring prices.
Nigeria’s inflation rate declined to 22.22 percent in June from 22.97 percent in May 2025, providing concrete evidence to support the shifting perceptions captured in the CBN’s latest Inflation Expectations Survey. The survey, released for June 2025, reveals a notable softening in public sentiment regarding price pressures that have plagued Nigerian consumers for months.
The central bank’s data paints a picture of measured improvement, with 71.0% of survey respondents perceiving inflation as high in June, down from 75.3% in May—a 4.3 percentage point decline that signals growing confidence in the government’s economic stabilization efforts. This shift represents the most significant month-over-month improvement in inflation perception in recent quarters.
Perhaps most striking is the household-level data, which shows a dramatic 10.1 percentage point drop in those viewing inflation as high, falling from 79.6% in May to 69.5% in June. This household optimism appears to reflect the lived experience of Nigerian families who are beginning to see some relief in the marketplace, with perceptions of moderate inflation rising from 15.9% to 22.7% among household respondents.
“The data suggests that the CBN’s inflation-targeting policies and broader macroeconomic reforms are beginning to resonate with ordinary Nigerians,” observed one economic analyst, noting that household perceptions often serve as a leading indicator of broader economic trends.
The survey also recorded increases in those perceiving inflation as moderate (up from 18.2% to 20.9%) and low (rising from 6.5% to 8.1%), suggesting a broad-based shift in public sentiment across multiple segments of the population.
However, the economic picture remains mixed, particularly in the business sector, where confidence has yet to fully recover. Business respondents bucked the overall trend, with 72.3% still viewing inflation as high in June compared to 71.5% in May—a slight uptick that underscores ongoing challenges facing Nigeria’s private sector.
This divergence between household and business sentiment reflects the complex nature of Nigeria’s economic recovery. While consumers may be experiencing some relief from price pressures, businesses continue to grapple with structural challenges, including foreign exchange volatility, supply chain disruptions, and elevated input costs that have characterized the Nigerian economy over the past year.
The CBN’s survey results come amid a broader context of economic policy reforms implemented by both the federal government and the apex bank. These measures, designed to restore macroeconomic stability, appear to be gradually building public confidence even as significant challenges remain.
The central bank has maintained an aggressive monetary policy stance, with recent interest rate adjustments aimed at anchoring inflation expectations and supporting the naira’s stability. These efforts, combined with government initiatives to address supply-side constraints, appear to be slowly shifting the narrative around Nigeria’s economic prospects.
As Nigeria continues to navigate its complex economic landscape, the June survey data provides a glimmer of hope that the country’s multifaceted approach to combating inflation may be gaining traction among the population it aims to serve, even as challenges persist in the business environment.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nigerian households are increasingly optimistic about inflation, with 10 percentage points fewer families viewing prices as high compared to last month, reflecting some success from the government’s economic policies.
With Nigeria’s inflation rate dropping from 22.97% to 22.22% in June, the data suggests ordinary Nigerians are beginning to feel relief at the marketplace, but structural challenges continue to weigh on business sentiment. This mixed recovery highlights that while consumer-facing inflation may be stabilizing, deeper economic issues affecting Nigeria’s private sector remain unresolved.
