The ADC has become the arena for Nigeria’s most consequential political battle ahead of 2027, as Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso fight for control of a party widely seen as the opposition’s best hope of unseating President Tinubu.
What began as quiet backroom negotiations has now spilled into the open, exposing deep fault lines within the ADC and raising fundamental questions about whether Nigeria’s fractured opposition can finally bury its differences long enough to mount a credible challenge to an incumbent president who has, so far, weathered considerable political and economic turbulence with his grip on power largely intact.
Perhaps the most significant development in recent weeks has been the formal convergence of two previously independent political movements: the Obidient Movement, the grassroots coalition that powered Peter Obi’s surprisingly strong 2023 Labour Party presidential bid; and the Kwankwassiyya Movement, the deeply loyal political machine built by Rabiu Kwankwaso over decades of dominance in Kano and across pockets of the Northwest.
Sources within both camps confirm that negotiations are not merely speculative; they are structured, deliberate, and advancing with urgency. Habibu Mohammad, the spokesperson of the Kwankwassiyya Movement, left little to the imagination when he told our correspondent that his principal had not only agreed to play second fiddle to Obi on a joint ticket but was “open to any role” that could legally remove Tinubu from Aso Rock.
“My principal, Kwankwaso, has agreed to deputize Obi,” Mohammad declared. “He is ready for anything that will help ADC unseat President Tinubu.”
This is a remarkable concession from a man of Kwankwaso’s stature and political ego. In 2023, Kwankwaso ran his own presidential campaign under the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), refusing coalition overtures from multiple quarters—including, famously, from Peter Obi himself. That he is now reportedly willing to serve as a running mate signals either a dramatic shift in political calculation or a recognition that the solo route to power is closed.
The newly launched Obi-Kwankwaso (OK) Movement, which has brought together supporters from both camps under a single umbrella, is being positioned as a formidable delegate and grassroots force ahead of the ADC’s primary election, one that party insiders say will not be structured around the traditional delegate system that has long been susceptible to monetization.
“We are not going to give in to any primary that is not credible,” Mohammad said pointedly—a barely veiled jab at what many perceive as Atiku’s financial advantage in delegate-heavy contests.
Adding an entirely different dimension to this unfolding drama is the reported involvement of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, a figure whose political interventions have historically carried enormous, if unpredictable, consequences.
Obasanjo, who famously tore up his PDP membership card in 2015 and has since positioned himself as an elder statesman above partisan politics, is said to be actively championing the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket while also pushing for a broader, unified opposition front against Tinubu.
His reported involvement lends the anti-Atiku movement significant moral and strategic weight, given that Obasanjo’s endorsement or opposition has historically proven decisive in Nigerian political contests.
It is worth recalling that Obasanjo was instrumental in Atiku’s emergence as his vice president in 1999, but the two men had a spectacular falling out that has never fully healed. Whether Obasanjo’s current maneuvers are motivated purely by a desire for the strongest possible opposition candidate or by older personal grievances remains a matter of considerable speculation in Abuja’s political circles.
For his part, Atiku Abubakar, a man who has contested Nigeria’s presidency no fewer than six times, beginning in 2003, is not going quietly. His camp, led in the public arena by Dele Momodu, is pushing aggressively for an Atiku/Obi ticket, a reversal of the Obi-Kwankwaso formulation that would keep the former vice president at the top of the ballot.
Atiku has sought to frame his continued relevance around his commanding influence in the North, arguing that none of his rivals can match his electoral strength in the region.
He has also moved to undercut Kwankwaso’s perceived stronghold, pointing out that Kano, once Kwankwaso’s unquestioned base, is now a divided state, split between Kwankwaso’s loyalists and those of sitting Governor Abba Yusuf.
Yet the pressure on Atiku to stand aside is coming from influential quarters that cannot easily be dismissed. Anambra Central Senator Victor Umeh, speaking on national television, was direct in his assessment. Atiku, he said, is a respected figure who has given Nigeria decades of political service, but it is time to give way to a younger generation.
Popular media analyst Jimi Disu was even blunter. “If it’s Atiku versus Tinubu in 2027,” he said, “I can already predict the result.” He added that Atiku “would be a hero” if he chose to step aside voluntarily.
Atiku, however, has offered what sounds less like a firm refusal and more like a conditional openness. “Yes, I will step aside for any winner,” he said publicly while making clear he intends to contest for that right to be the winner first. When pressed on whether he would step aside even for Obi, his response was telling: “Of course, if he is a contender, why not?”
It was a diplomatic answer — and in Nigerian politics, diplomatic answers rarely settle anything.
While the power brokers negotiate, foot soldiers on both sides have taken to social media with a ferocity that threatens to get ahead of the principals themselves.
AbdulAziz Na’ibi Abubakar, one of Atiku’s most prominent online supporters, issued what amounted to a warning on X, declaring that a nationwide protest would follow if Atiku stepped down. “Nigerians will not settle for missing another chance to experience good governance and true democracy,” he wrote, implying, pointedly, that only Atiku represents that chance.
The backlash was swift and fierce, with Obi-Kwankwaso supporters rejecting the claim wholesale. A statement from an account identifying as the Arewa Source escalated the temperature further, declaring that “the North will reject any ticket with Peter Obi on the ballot,” invoking a regional solidarity argument that, if it gains traction, could prove deeply corrosive to any hopes of a genuinely national opposition coalition.
ADC chieftain Austin Okai has called for calm, warning that the escalating rhetoric could deepen political tensions and ultimately hand the advantage to the very incumbent all parties claim to want to defeat.
Strip away the personalities and the posturing, and the battle within the ADC is really a contest over a single, defining question: what kind of opposition can actually beat Bola Tinubu in 2027?
Those backing Atiku argue that only a candidate with deep northern roots and a proven national network can assemble the coalition needed to win. Those backing Obi argue that the 2023 election demonstrated a historic appetite for a new kind of politics, one that crosses ethnic and regional lines, and that Obi, with Kwankwaso providing northern ballast, is best positioned to harness that energy.
Both arguments have merit. Both have significant weaknesses. And therein lies the ADC’s central dilemma.
Nigeria’s opposition has a painful history of snatching defeat from the jaws of opportunity through ego, fragmentation, and an inability to subordinate individual ambition to collective purpose. The question hanging over every meeting, every negotiation, and every social media exchange within the ADC right now is a simple but urgent one: have they finally learned from that history?
The 2027 elections are approaching. The clock is ticking. And for the moment, the ADC’s biggest opponent may not be Bola Tinubu—it may be itself.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
The ADC’s 2027 presidential battle ultimately boils down to one uncomfortable truth: Nigeria’s opposition is once again at war with itself. Three powerful figures, Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso, are competing for the same ticket, while the one man they all claim to want to defeat, President Tinubu, watches from Aso Rock.
The emerging Obi-Kwankwaso alliance, reportedly backed by Obasanjo, represents the opposition’s most promising coalition in years. However, Atiku’s refusal to quietly exit the stage, backed by fierce northern loyalty, threatens to fracture that coalition before it ever faces a single voter.
