Global oil prices surged over 5% on Thursday as fears grew of major disruptions to global energy supplies, following Iran’s vow to retaliate against Gulf energy sites for an attack on its key gas field.
The benchmark contract for April delivery leapt 5.1 percent to a high of $112.84 a barrel before easing back to around $108 by 7:48 a.m. WAT. West Texas Intermediate futures rose a more modest 2.5 percent to $98.69 in Asian trading hours.
The sharp spike reflected growing investor panic that a nearly three-week-old regional war could inflict lasting damage on the world’s energy arteries.
The immediate trigger was a fresh wave of Iranian strikes on Gulf energy targets, including extensive damage inflicted Thursday on Qatar’s massive Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility.
Tehran has openly described the assaults as payback for an Israeli airstrike on Iran’s South Pars gas field—the Iranian half of the world’s largest natural gas reservoir, which is shared with Qatar.
Adding to the volatility, U.S. President Donald Trump weighed in dramatically on social media, issuing a blunt ultimatum. He demanded an immediate halt to all strikes on both Iranian and Qatari energy sites, declaring that Washington “knew nothing” about Israel’s earlier attack on South Pars.
Trump vowed that “NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL” on the Iranian field if Tehran ceases its operations against Qatar. But he issued a stark warning: should Iran refuse to comply, the United States would “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field.”
The president’s post appeared aimed at de-escalating the conflict, yet analysts noted it also underscored Washington’s readiness to intervene directly if the fighting threatens global oil and gas flows.
The escalation comes as the conflict—now entering its third week—increasingly targets the energy heart of the Gulf. South Pars alone accounts for a significant share of both Iran’s and Qatar’s gas production; any sustained damage there could ripple through LNG markets worldwide, while attacks on facilities such as Ras Laffan threaten already tight supplies of super-cooled gas heading to Europe and Asia.
The shockwaves have already reached far-flung corners of the globe. In the South Pacific, import-dependent island nations are sounding the alarm. Leaders in Samoa and Tonga this week appealed for urgent international assistance, warning of impending fuel shortages and spiraling costs.
Roughly two-thirds of Samoa’s electricity generation relies on imported diesel; any prolonged spike in crude prices threatens blackouts and economic hardship in countries with limited alternatives.
Closer to the epicenter, the pain is already acute. In Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer and exporter, the fallout has been swift and brutal. Premium Motor Spirit (PMS)—the petrol that powers daily life—has rocketed from below N200 per liter in 2023 to more than N1,000 at the pump today.
The surge has fed directly into broader inflation, driving up food prices and squeezing households already grappling with subsidy reforms and currency pressures.
Traders and energy analysts will be watching closely in the coming hours. A sustained breach above $110 for Brent would mark the highest levels in years and could quickly translate into higher costs at the pump from Lagos to London.
For now, the market’s message is clear: in a world still healing from previous energy shocks, even the threat of disruption in the Gulf is enough to send prices soaring—and governments scrambling.
The coming days will test whether diplomatic pressure—including Trump’s high-stakes warning—can cool the conflict, or whether the world’s oil markets are in for a prolonged and painful ride.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
The single most critical factor driving today’s oil price surge is the direct targeting of major Gulf energy infrastructure, especially Iran’s South Pars gas field and Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, in an escalating regional conflict.
If these massive production and export hubs suffer sustained damage or prolonged disruption, global energy supplies face a serious risk, pushing crude prices sharply higher and inflicting immediate economic pain from Lagos to the South Pacific.
Everything else—statements, threats, and diplomacy—hinges on whether these strategic energy assets can be protected from further attack.
