Global oil markets retreated from last week’s gains on Monday as geopolitical tensions that had driven prices higher showed signs of easing, with Iranian authorities asserting they had quelled major anti-government unrest and Venezuela preparing to resume oil shipments to international markets.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, slipped 28 cents to $63.06 per barrel by early afternoon London time, a decline of 0.44%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate followed suit, dropping 34 cents, or 0.58%, to settle at $58.78 per barrel during Monday trading.
The modest pullback comes after both benchmarks surged more than 3% last week—their strongest weekly performance since October—as investors grew increasingly concerned about potential supply disruptions from Iran, one of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ key producers.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi sought to reassure markets on Monday, declaring the situation in the Islamic Republic “under total control” following what government sources described as the most significant anti-government demonstrations since 2022. The clerical establishment has intensified its crackdown on protesters in recent days, deploying security forces across major cities.
The protests had raised alarm bells in energy markets, with traders concerned that escalating domestic turmoil could threaten Iran’s oil production capacity or invite external intervention. Those fears were amplified when U.S. President Donald Trump issued a stark warning last week, suggesting possible military action should Iranian authorities resort to violent suppression of the demonstrations.
According to a U.S. official who spoke to Reuters, President Trump is scheduled to convene with senior advisers on Tuesday to review policy options regarding Iran, though the nature of those discussions remains unclear.
“Lower European equity markets and lack of additional supply disruptions is moderately weighing on oil prices, following a strong rally at the end of last week,” explained Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at Swiss banking giant UBS.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Venezuela appears poised to re-enter global oil markets following the collapse of Nicolas Maduro’s government. President Trump announced last week that the new administration in Caracas has agreed to transfer as much as 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned oil to the United States — a development that could significantly increase available supply.
The announcement has triggered what industry insiders describe as a scramble among international oil companies to secure tanker capacity and coordinate logistics for extracting crude from aging Venezuelan storage facilities and deteriorating port infrastructure. Four sources with knowledge of the operations confirmed that companies are racing to position themselves for what could be a substantial influx of Venezuelan barrels.
During a White House meeting on Friday, executives from commodity trading house Trafigura indicated their first vessel could begin loading operations within the next week, signaling that Venezuela’s oil could reach markets sooner than many analysts had anticipated.
While Iran and Venezuela dominated Monday’s trading narrative, investors continue to monitor potential disruptions from Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer. Ukrainian forces have stepped up attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in recent weeks, while the prospect of stricter U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports looms over the market.
These competing factors—easing tensions in Iran and new supply from Venezuela versus ongoing risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict—are creating what analysts describe as a volatile trading environment where prices could swing sharply on geopolitical developments.
Despite the recent rally and persistent geopolitical uncertainties, investment banking powerhouse Goldman Sachs issued a bearish forecast for oil markets on Sunday, projecting that prices will drift lower throughout the year as growing supply outpaces demand.
In a research note, the bank maintained its 2026 average price forecasts of $56 per barrel for Brent crude and $52 for WTI. Goldman expects prices to reach their nadir in the final quarter of the year, with Brent potentially falling to $54 and WTI to $50 as inventories in developed economies accumulate.
“A wave of supply creates a market surplus,” Goldman analysts wrote, though they acknowledged that geopolitical risks tied to Russia, Venezuela, and Iran would “continue to drive volatility” even in an oversupplied market.
The divergence between short-term geopolitical risk premiums and longer-term supply fundamentals continues to challenge traders attempting to navigate what has become one of the most unpredictable oil markets in recent years.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Oil prices dropped Monday despite recent geopolitical tensions, as Iran declared control over major protests and Venezuela prepared to resume exports—potentially adding 50 million barrels to global supply. While short-term risks from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela continue to create volatility, the fundamental picture points to an oversupplied market.
Goldman Sachs predicts prices will decline throughout 2026, with Brent crude potentially falling to $54 per barrel by year-end as new supply outpaces demand. For consumers and investors alike, the message is clear: easing geopolitical fears and returning Venezuelan oil are likely to keep downward pressure on prices, though sudden flare-ups could still cause temporary spikes.
