Nigeria’s trade relationship with the United States suffered a dramatic reversal in 2025, with export earnings collapsing by nearly N941 billion in the first nine months of the year as Washington’s tariff escalation and softening market demand dealt a severe blow to Nigerian exporters, official statistics reveal.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics paint a sobering picture of bilateral commerce that has shifted from robust surplus to deep deficit within the space of twelve months. Nigerian exports to America totaled N3.65 trillion between January and September 2025, representing a steep 20.5 percent decline from the N4.59 trillion recorded during the same period last year.
The downturn coincides with the Trump administration’s introduction of what it terms a “reciprocal” tariff framework, which raised duties on Nigerian goods entering the US market. President Donald Trump‘s executive order, which took effect on August 7, increased Nigeria’s baseline tariff rate from 14 to 15 percent, though crude oil shipments—Nigeria’s dominant export to America—were largely exempted from the measure.
Industry analysts suggest that while the one percentage point increase may appear modest, its psychological and practical impact on non-oil trade has been substantial, discouraging US importers and crimping demand for Nigerian manufactures and processed goods.
The transformation in Nigeria’s trade position with the United States has been swift and unforgiving. In the first nine months of 2024, Nigeria enjoyed a comfortable trade surplus of N1.57 trillion, exporting N4.59 trillion worth of goods while importing N3.01 trillion.
Fast forward to 2025, and that surplus has evaporated entirely. With exports down to N3.65 trillion and imports surging to N6.80 trillion, Nigeria now faces a yawning trade deficit of approximately N3.15 trillion with its American trading partner—a staggering reversal worth nearly N4.72 trillion in just one year.
The quarterly breakdown reveals the speed of the deterioration. Nigerian exports to the US started 2025 on a relatively solid footing at N1.54 trillion in the first quarter before sliding to N1.36 trillion in the second quarter. Then came the third-quarter collapse: exports plummeted to just N743.63 billion, marking a brutal 45.3 percent quarter-on-quarter decline and representing the sharpest contraction recorded during the period.
Meanwhile, imports traveled in precisely the opposite direction, climbing from N1.42 trillion in Q1 to N2.16 trillion in Q2 before surging to N3.22 trillion in the third quarter—more than quadrupling Nigeria’s export earnings and deepening the trade imbalance.
Year-on-year comparisons underscore how quickly the landscape shifted. In the first quarter of 2025, Nigerian exports to America actually grew by 17.7 percent compared to the same period in 2024, suggesting initial optimism about bilateral trade prospects.
But the tariff implementation and broader demand weakness quickly took their toll. By the second quarter, exports had contracted 14.3 percent year-on-year. The third quarter brought catastrophe: a 56 percent plunge compared to the same period in 2024.
The magnitude of the third-quarter collapse helps explain why the United States—traditionally one of Nigeria’s top export destinations—fell out of the country’s top five export markets by mid-2025, even as it remained a major source of imports flowing into Nigeria.
Product-level data from the statistics bureau illuminates which sectors absorbed the impact. In the first quarter of 2025, when exports remained relatively healthy, Nigeria’s shipments to America were anchored by crude petroleum oils valued at N779.38 billion—more than half of total exports for the period.
Other significant first-quarter export items included urea fertilizer worth N240.17 billion, kerosene-type jet fuel at N214.30 billion, petroleum gases valued at N95.97 billion, and cocoa beans fetching N58.84 billion.
By the third quarter, however, Nigeria’s export basket to the US had withered dramatically. The product mix shifted to far smaller-value items: soybean flours and meals worth N23.60 billion, cocoa powder preparations valued at a mere N36.83 million, and technically specified natural rubber at N5.03 billion.
The near-disappearance of high-value petroleum products from third-quarter exports—despite crude oil’s exemption from tariff increases—suggests that broader market dynamics beyond tariffs may be at play, including refining capacity issues, logistical constraints, or shifts in American energy sourcing.
Trade economists note that while crude oil exports received tariff exemptions, Nigeria’s non-oil export sector—long identified as critical to economic diversification—appears to have borne the brunt of Washington’s tariff regime.
The higher duties have increased costs for American importers of Nigerian-manufactured goods, processed foods, and agricultural products, making these items less competitive against alternatives from other countries. For Nigerian businesses that invested heavily in export-oriented production, the sudden market contraction represents a significant setback.
The timing could hardly be worse for Nigeria’s economic managers, who have championed non-oil export growth as essential to reducing the country’s dependence on crude petroleum revenues and building a more resilient, diversified economy.
The trade deficit with America adds another layer of pressure to Nigeria’s already strained external accounts. With the country managing multiple economic challenges—including naira depreciation, elevated inflation, and foreign exchange scarcity—the loss of nearly N1 trillion in export earnings compounds fiscal and monetary policy difficulties.
Trade policy experts suggest that Nigerian authorities may need to pursue several parallel strategies: intensifying diplomatic engagement with Washington to seek tariff relief, accelerating efforts to diversify export destinations beyond traditional Western markets, improving the competitiveness of Nigerian products through better infrastructure and lower production costs, and potentially exploring regional value chains that could reduce dependence on any single major market.
The developments also underscore the vulnerability of developing economies to sudden shifts in trade policy from major economic powers and the urgent need for Nigeria to build more balanced and resilient trading relationships across multiple regions and partners.
As the final quarter of 2025 unfolds, Nigerian exporters and policymakers alike will be watching closely to see whether the trade relationship stabilizes or if further deterioration lies ahead.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nigeria’s exports to the United States have collapsed by N941 billion (20.5%) in the first nine months of 2025, flipping a healthy N1.57 trillion trade surplus in 2024 into a devastating N3.15 trillion deficit. The crisis peaked in Q3 2025, when exports crashed 56% year-on-year to just N744 billion—the steepest quarterly decline on record.
US tariff increases under Trump’s “reciprocal” policy (raised from 14% to 15% in August) hit Nigeria’s non-oil exports hard, while crude oil—though exempted—saw reduced shipments due to broader market pressures. Non-oil sectors that Nigeria desperately needs for economic diversification bore the full brunt, with the export basket shrinking from high-value petroleum products and fertilizers to small-value agricultural items.
Nigeria has lost a crucial export market just when it needs foreign exchange most, exposing the fragility of its trade relationships and the urgent need to diversify both products and destinations. The US remains a top source of Nigerian imports, making the trade imbalance even more painful for the country’s strained foreign reserves.
