In a development that has caught the attention of global energy markets, crude oil production by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) alliance of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia fell by 106,000 barrels per day in April 2025 compared to the previous month.
According to secondary sources cited in OPEC’s latest oil market report, the group’s total output averaged 40.92 million barrels per day (mb/d), reflecting a cautious approach to production amid shifting demand forecasts and economic uncertainties.
This decline, while modest, underscores the complex balancing act the DoC faces as it navigates a volatile global oil market shaped by trade tensions, geopolitical dynamics, and evolving energy policies.
The DoC, formalized in 2016 to stabilize oil markets through coordinated production policies, includes heavyweights like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, among others.
The group has been managing output through a series of voluntary cuts and phased increases, with the goal of preventing oversupply while supporting prices. The April drop in production, though small, comes as the group begins unwinding some of its voluntary cuts, a process that started in April and is set to accelerate in June with a planned increase of 411,000 b/d.
However, the actual output hikes have been tempered by overproduction from some members and compensatory cuts by others, creating a patchwork of compliance within the alliance.
Breaking down the numbers, the 106,000 b/d decline was driven partly by OPEC members, who accounted for a 62,000 b/d reduction, bringing their collective output to 26.71 mb/d. Key contributors to the drop included Venezuela, Iraq, and Libya, where supply constraints—ranging from infrastructure challenges to geopolitical disruptions—offset gains from countries like Iran, which has been ramping up production despite looming sanctions.
Non-OPEC DoC participants, such as Russia and Kazakhstan, also contributed to the overall decline, though specific country-level data remains less clear from secondary sources. Notably, Kazakhstan’s output has been a focal point, with its Tengiz oilfield expansion pushing production to record highs, putting the country 390,000 b/d above its OPEC+ quota in recent months.
The production dip comes against a backdrop of weakening global oil demand forecasts, exacerbated by escalating trade tensions and macroeconomic headwinds. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently lowered its global oil demand growth estimate by 0.5 mb/d for 2025, citing the impact of new U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from trading partners.
These policies, combined with concerns about economic slowdowns in major markets like China, have fueled a bearish outlook, pushing Brent crude prices to a four-year low of $60.23 per barrel in early May. The International Energy Agency (IEA) further noted that global oil inventories rose by 21.9 million barrels in February, signaling an oversupplied market that could grow by 0.5 mb/d in the second quarter of 2025 if current trends persist.
Market analysts are divided on the implications of the April production drop. Some see it as a sign of restraint, with OPEC+ responding to weak demand signals by delaying full output increases.
The 106,000 b/d cut, while small, shows the group is treading carefully,” said Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects. “They’re testing the waters with these phased hikes, but the market’s reaction—prices hitting multi-year lows—suggests demand concerns are outweighing supply-side moves.”
Others, however, argue that the decline reflects involuntary disruptions rather than strategic intent, pointing to Libya’s ongoing political instability and Venezuela’s crumbling infrastructure. Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates noted that “expectations of mounting global inventories, coupled with tariff-driven demand deterioration, are amplifying bearish sentiment.”
The group’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is set to convene in early June to review market conditions. Key issues on the table include enforcing compliance among overproducing members, finalizing compensation schedules for past overproduction, and assessing the impact of non-OPEC+ supply growth.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
The April production decline serves as a reminder of the delicate tightrope OPEC+ is walking. With global oil demand growth projected at just 1.3 mb/d for 2025—unchanged from OPEC’s latest forecast—and non-OPEC+ supply poised to outpace it, the DoC’s ability to maintain market stability will depend on its unity and responsiveness.
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