OPEC+ oil-producing nations finalized a 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) output increase for July during an online meeting on Saturday, aligning with production rises set for May and June, according to sources close to the discussions.
The decision, made by the eight leading OPEC+ members, reflects a strategy to reclaim market share and address overproduction by some members, despite recent pressure on oil prices.
The meeting, which began shortly after 0900 GMT, also explored the possibility of a larger output hike, sources said, with Kazakhstan’s refusal to cut production sparking heated debate.
Kazakhstan, which has consistently exceeded its OPEC+ quota, issued a statement on Thursday rejecting calls for output reductions, prompting speculation of a more significant increase.
Kazakhstan’s repeated public displays of production defiance may raise the risk of an even bigger output increase, said Helima Croft, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, though she noted the 411,000 bpd hike remained the most likely outcome.
The group’s strategy, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, aims to balance punishing non-compliant members like Kazakhstan while gradually unwinding 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts initiated by eight key members in April.
However, the increased supply has contributed to a sharp decline in oil prices, which fell to a four-year low below $60 per barrel in April and closed at just under $63 on Friday. The drop was escalated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which have raised concerns about global economic growth.
Tensions within OPEC+ were evident as some members were urged to offset their overproduction by tempering output increases. Kazakhstan’s defiance has frustrated other members, with sources indicating that its actions partly drove the group’s decision to accelerate output hikes since April.
United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei, speaking on Tuesday, emphasized OPEC+’s efforts to stabilize the oil market but offered no specifics on July’s plans.
The group’s output strategy continues to navigate a delicate balance between market share, price stability, and internal discipline.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
OPEC+ agreed to a 411,000 barrels per day oil output increase for July, consistent with May and June, despite tensions over Kazakhstan’s refusal to cut production. The decision, driven by Saudi Arabia and Russia, aims to reclaim market share and address overproduction by some members.
