Oil prices climbed on Monday after OPEC+ announced it would suspend planned production increases in the first quarter of next year, signaling a cautious approach amid growing concerns over potential oversupply in the global oil market.
Brent crude futures rose by 24 cents, or 0.37%, to $65.01 per barrel at 05:24 AM WAT, following a modest 7-cent gain on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also edged higher, up 21 cents, or 0.34%, to $61.19 per barrel after settling 41 cents higher in the previous session.
OPEC+, the coalition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, agreed on Sunday to make a small increase in oil output for December while pausing additional hikes throughout the first quarter of 2026.
The eight OPEC+ members participating in the monthly policy meeting, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria, approved a 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in production targets for December. The figure matches the hikes implemented in October and November.
“Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026,” the group said in a statement.
The move reflects OPEC+’s ongoing strategy to stabilize the oil market while balancing its efforts to regain market share against the risk of a growing supply glut.
Since April, OPEC+ has raised output targets by approximately 2.9 million bp, equivalent to around 2.7% of global supply. However, the alliance began to slow the pace of increases from October amid fears of a possible oversupply.
Complicating the group’s output strategy are new Western sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia. Moscow faces mounting challenges in boosting production after the U.S. and Britain imposed additional restrictions on major Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil.
Oil prices had previously fallen to a five-month low of about $60 per barrel on October 20 due to oversupply concerns. But renewed optimism, driven by sanctions on Russia and progress in U.S. trade talks, has since helped prices rebound to around $65 per barrel.
OPEC+ had maintained a policy of output reductions for several years until April, when production cuts peaked at 5.85 million bpd. These reductions included voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, 1.65 million bpd from eight member nations, and an additional 2 million bpd from the entire group.
The coalition has gradually begun to unwind these voluntary reductions, though the final element of the broader group’s cuts will remain in place until the end of 2026.
The eight-member OPEC+ bloc is expected to reconvene on November 30, coinciding with a full meeting of all OPEC+ countries to further assess market conditions and future production plans.
What you should know
OPEC+’s decision to pause oil production hikes in early 2026 comes amid concerns of oversupply and market instability.
While oil prices have recovered to around $65 per barrel, the group’s cautious stance highlights the impact of Russian sanctions, seasonal demand shifts, and efforts to maintain price stability.
