Nigeria’s private sector closed out 2025 on a strong note, posting its most robust expansion of the year as business activity accelerated across major economic sectors, according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 57.6 points in December, up from 56.4 points the previous month, marking the fastest pace of growth recorded throughout 2025. Any reading above 50 points indicates expansion in economic activity, while figures below that threshold signal contraction.
The December reading represents a significant milestone for Africa’s largest economy, which has been working to sustain recovery momentum amid persistent challenges, including inflation, currency pressures, and security concerns that have weighed on business sentiment in recent years.
A detailed examination of the underlying data reveals widespread improvements across multiple dimensions of business activity. Production levels surged, with the Output Index reaching 60.0 points, while the New Orders Index rose to 58.7 points, pointing to strengthened demand conditions in the domestic market.
Perhaps most encouraging from an employment perspective, the jobs index climbed to 54.2 points, suggesting that businesses continued to add workers despite the challenging operating environment that has characterized much of Nigeria’s recent economic landscape.
Supply chain conditions also showed marked improvement. The Raw Materials Inventory Index stood at 54.5 points, indicating better availability of inputs for manufacturers, while the Suppliers’ Delivery Time Index jumped to 58.2 points—a notable gain that reflects enhanced logistics efficiency and reduced bottlenecks in the distribution network.
Within the industrial sector, which recorded a PMI of 57.0 points, the performance was notably broad-based. Fourteen of the seventeen industrial subsectors tracked by the central bank registered expansion during the month.
Transportation equipment manufacturing led the charge with the strongest growth rates, though the central bank’s report noted that paper products experienced the most significant contraction. However, officials emphasized that even these declining subsectors posted only marginal contractions, suggesting overall sectoral resilience.
“Overall, the December 2025 PMI data showed a sustained expansion in economic activities across all sectors, outperforming all earlier sectors recorded during the year,” the CBN stated in its report.
Beyond manufacturing, other major sectors demonstrated sustained momentum. The Services PMI registered 56.4 points, marking the eleventh consecutive month of expansion in a sector that employs millions of Nigerians and accounts for a substantial portion of the country’s gross domestic product.
Even more remarkable was agriculture’s performance, with the sector’s PMI rising to 58.5 points. This extends the agricultural sector’s growth streak to seventeen consecutive months—the longest expansion run in the entire PMI data series. The sustained agricultural growth comes as welcome news for a country where farming remains a critical source of livelihood for a large segment of the population and where food security remains a pressing policy concern.
The December data suggests strengthening business confidence and points to a private sector gaining traction as Nigeria prepares to enter 2026. The combination of rising output, robust demand, improved logistics infrastructure, and continued job creation paints a picture of an economy building sustainable momentum.
Economists note that the PMI readings reinforce expectations of continued private-sector expansion, underpinned by improving operating conditions, resilient consumer demand despite inflationary pressures, and increasingly efficient supply chains that had previously been plagued by infrastructure deficits and regulatory hurdles.
The sustained multi-sector expansion comes at a critical juncture for Nigeria’s economy, which has faced headwinds from global commodity price volatility, foreign exchange challenges, and the ongoing structural reforms being implemented by policymakers seeking to diversify the economy beyond its traditional dependence on oil revenues.
While challenges remain—including persistent inflation that has eroded purchasing power and exchange rate pressures that continue to complicate import-dependent businesses—the December PMI data offers tangible evidence that economic reforms and improving business conditions may be beginning to yield measurable results on the ground.
As Nigeria enters 2026, the question now is whether this momentum can be sustained and whether the private sector expansion will translate into broader improvements in living standards for the country’s over 200 million citizens.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nigeria’s private sector hit its strongest growth of 2025 in December, with the Composite PMI reaching 57.6 points—signaling robust expansion across manufacturing, services, and agriculture.
The standout factor: this represents broad-based economic momentum, with 14 of 17 industrial subsectors expanding, agriculture maintaining a record 17-month growth streak, and crucially, continued job creation despite ongoing inflation and currency challenges.
The data suggests Nigeria’s economy is building genuine recovery momentum heading into 2026, driven by stronger demand, improved supply chains, and rising business confidence across all major sectors.
