Nigeria’s economic expansion accelerated in September 2025, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbing to 54.0 points from 51.7 in August, according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The robust reading marks the tenth straight month of growth, signaling sustained momentum across Africa’s largest economy as it navigates through the third quarter of the year.
The September PMI figure—well above the critical 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction—reflects a broad-based improvement in business conditions across the nation’s key economic sectors. For economists and policymakers, the data provide concrete evidence that Nigeria’s economic recovery, which began at the start of the year, continues to gain traction.
Strong Performance Across Key Indicators
Drilling down into the composite index reveals encouraging trends across multiple fronts. The Output Index registered 54.8 points, indicating that Nigerian businesses ramped up production to meet rising demand. This was complemented by a New Orders Index of 53.7 points, suggesting that order books continued to fill—a critical forward-looking indicator of sustained economic activity.
Employment trends also showed positive momentum, with the Employment Index reaching 53.4 points. This suggests that businesses are not only producing more but are also adding workers to their payrolls, a development that could have significant implications for household incomes and consumer spending in the months ahead.
Supply chain dynamics also improved markedly. The Raw Materials Inventory stood at 52.9 points, while Suppliers’ Delivery Time accelerated to 54.6 points—the latter figure indicating that suppliers are delivering goods more quickly, a sign of improved logistics and operational efficiency across the economy.
Sectoral Breakdown: Winners and Challenges
The CBN’s survey of 36 subsectors painted a picture of widespread, though not universal, growth. Twenty-eight subsectors reported expansion during the month, while eight recorded mild contractions—a ratio that underscores the resilience of Nigeria’s diversified economy.
The standout performer was the forestry subsector, which posted an eye-catching 73.6 index points, reflecting robust activity in timber production and related industries. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Nonmetallic Mineral Products struggled, declining to 40.7 points—the sharpest contraction among all subsectors surveyed
Industry Sector Rebounds After Brief Setback
September brought welcome news for Nigeria’s industrial sector, which had stumbled in August. The Industry Sector PMI rebounded decisively to 51.4 points from 49.1, returning to expansion territory after a single month of contraction.
Of the 17 industrial subsectors tracked, 11 reported growth. Printing & Related Support Activities led the charge with a reading of 59.4 points, while six subsectors experienced slight contractions, again with Nonmetallic Mineral Products bringing up the rear at 40.7 points.
Within the industrial sector, most indicators flashed green. Output reached 51.6 points, employment hit 51.9, raw materials inventory stood at 51.1, and suppliers’ delivery time came in at a healthy 54.6 points. The one soft spot was New Orders, which contracted slightly to 49.4 points—a development that bears watching in the coming months, though overall activity remained firmly positive.
Services Sector Maintains Impressive Streak
Nigeria’s services sector continued its impressive run, posting 54.7 points in September and marking its eighth consecutive month of expansion. This sector, which encompasses everything from telecommunications to hospitality, has emerged as a pillar of Nigeria’s economic recovery.
All key indicators within services expanded: Business Activities rose to 56.3 points, New Orders reached 55.1, Employment climbed to 54.1, and Inventories stood at 53.2. The across-the-board strength reflects sustained consumer and business demand for services, as well as continued job creation in the sector.
Twelve of the 14 services subsectors surveyed recorded expansions. Educational Services emerged as the star performer with a reading of 65.8 points—likely reflecting Nigeria’s ongoing investments in education and training. Only Professional, Scientific & Technical Services saw a mild pullback to 45.6 points.
Agriculture Remains the Economy’s Powerhouse
Perhaps the most remarkable story in September’s PMI report is the continued strength of Nigeria’s agriculture sector. With a reading of 54.8 points, the sector notched its fourteenth consecutive month of expansion, maintaining its position as the economy’s strongest-performing segment.
Growth in agriculture was truly broad-based, with all five subsectors in expansion mode. General Farming Activities registered 55.4 points, New Orders reached 55.9, Employment stood at 53.4, and Raw Materials Inventory came in at 54.5 points.
The forestry subsector’s remarkable 73.6-point reading highlighted the agricultural sector’s outsized contribution to national output. For a nation where agriculture employs a significant portion of the workforce and contributes substantially to GDP, this sustained strength is particularly significant for both food security and rural economic development.
What It Means Going Forward
The September PMI data will likely provide ammunition for policymakers at the CBN and federal government who have been implementing reforms aimed at stabilizing and growing the economy. The ten-month expansion streak suggests that these efforts may be gaining traction, though challenges certainly remain.
As Nigeria heads into the final quarter of 2025, all eyes will be on whether this momentum can be sustained, particularly as the nation confronts ongoing structural challenges, including infrastructure deficits, currency pressures, and the need for continued diversification away from oil dependency.
For now, however, the message from September’s PMI is clear: Nigeria’s economy is expanding, businesses are producing more, workers are being hired, and activity is broad-based across sectors. That’s a narrative of resilience and growth that offers reasons for cautious optimism as the year draws to a close.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nigeria’s economy is showing genuine strength, with business activity expanding for ten straight months through September 2025. The headline number—a PMI of 54.0—tells only part of the story. What matters most is that this growth is real and widespread: 28 of 36 sectors are expanding, businesses are hiring workers, production is rising, and supply chains are moving faster.
Agriculture remains the star performer with 14 consecutive months of growth, while services have notched eight straight months of expansion. Even the industrial sector, which stumbled briefly in August, has bounced back into positive territory.
