Oil prices extended their rally for a second consecutive session on Friday, climbing more than 1% as markets grappled with deepening uncertainty over crude supplies from Venezuela and Iran, two nations now facing unprecedented political and social upheaval.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, advanced 83 cents—or 1.3%—to reach $62.82 per barrel by 0730 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 76 cents, also up 1.3%, settling at $58.52 per barrel. The gains marked a decisive turnaround from earlier in the week, positioning both benchmarks for their third consecutive weekly advance. Brent was poised for a 2.7% weekly gain, and WTI was up 1.4%.
The rally follows Thursday’s dramatic 3% surge, which came after two days of losses, as traders recalibrated their assessments of global supply risks in light of rapidly evolving geopolitical developments.
The most immediate catalyst for the price surge stems from the extraordinary events unfolding in Venezuela. Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump‘s administration captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, with Trump subsequently declaring American intentions to assume control of the South American nation’s oil sector—a move that has sent shockwaves through global energy markets.
“The price surge has been primarily due to Trump’s claim to control Venezuela’s oil export, which could see a price increase from previously discounted sales,” explained Tina Teng, market strategist at Moomoo ANZ.
The stakes are considerable. Major oil companies and trading houses—including Chevron Corporation, global trading giants Vitol and Trafigura, and other firms—are now actively competing for U.S. government contracts to export Venezuelan crude, according to sources with direct knowledge of the negotiations.
At issue are approximately 50 million barrels of oil that state-run PDVSA has accumulated in its storage facilities over the years, during periods of severe oil embargoes that have included the seizure of four tankers. U.S. officials have indicated Washington intends to control Venezuela’s oil sales and revenues indefinitely, fundamentally reshaping the country’s energy export landscape.
“The market will focus on the outcome in the coming days for how the Venezuelan oil in storage will be sold and delivered,” Teng noted. “Oversupply concerns could remain a concern if there is no limitation on sales.”
Compounding market jitters, civil unrest continues to escalate across Iran, another major Middle Eastern oil producer. A nationwide internet blackout was reported Thursday by NetBlocks, an internet monitoring organization, as protests over economic hardships spread through the capital, Tehran, and major cities, including Mashhad and Isfahan.
The demonstrations raise concerns about potential disruptions to Iranian oil production and exports, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile supply picture. Combined with ongoing fears that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could expand to target Russian oil exports, the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets has climbed substantially.
Despite the recent price momentum, analysts caution that structural oversupply concerns remain firmly in place for 2026, creating a complex dynamic for traders to navigate.
“Bottlenecks in the flow of sanctioned barrels and steady demand signals appear to counter the backdrop of an oversupplied 2026, at least for now,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. “Escalation in geopolitical stress adds to the current momentum in oil prices.”
Haitong Futures noted in a Friday research report that the recent surge partly represents a correction after markets had “neglected” geopolitical risks in previous sessions. However, the firm emphasized that rising global inventories and fundamental oversupply dynamics could ultimately cap further gains.
“Unless risks around Iran escalate, the rebound is likely limited and hard to sustain,” Haitong Futures warned, suggesting that without further deterioration in major producing nations, the current rally may prove short-lived.
As markets head into the weekend, traders will be closely monitoring developments in both Venezuela and Iran, aware that the fragile balance between geopolitical supply disruptions and underlying market fundamentals could shift rapidly in either direction.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Oil prices jumped over 1% Friday, marking their third straight weekly gain, driven primarily by two critical supply concerns: the U.S. seizure of Venezuela’s president and Trump’s plans to control Venezuelan oil exports, plus escalating civil unrest in major producer Iran.
While geopolitical fears are pushing prices higher in the short term, analysts warn the rally may not last—global oversupply remains the dominant long-term reality for 2026. Geopolitical chaos is temporarily overshadowing fundamental market weakness, but unless Iran’s situation worsens significantly, expect this price bounce to be limited.
