Nigeria’s inflation rate continued its downward trajectory in November 2025, falling to 14.45 percent from 16.05 percent in October, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report from the National Bureau of Statistics.
The development signals that recent economic reforms may be beginning to yield results, though business leaders caution that targeted interventions remain critical for smaller enterprises.
The Consumer Price Index climbed to 130.5 points in November from 128.9 points the previous month, representing a 1.6-point increase. However, the year-on-year headline inflation rate showed significant easing, marking a substantial 20.15 percentage point decline from the 34.60 percent recorded in November 2024.
This sharp year-on-year comparison partly reflects the impact of Nigeria’s statistical rebasing exercise, which updated the base year from 2009 to 2024, providing a more accurate picture of current economic conditions.
Month-on-Month Pressures Persist
Despite the encouraging annual trend, month-on-month data revealed ongoing price pressures. Headline inflation stood at 1.22 percent in November, up from 0.93 percent in October, indicating that average prices continued rising at a faster pace during the month.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the primary driver of inflation, contributing 5.78 percentage points to the year-on-year rate. Restaurants and accommodation services added 1.87 percentage points, while transport contributed 1.54 percentage points. Housing, utilities, education, and health services also added to inflationary pressures.
Food inflation specifically stood at 11.08 percent year-on-year in November, down dramatically from 39.93 percent in November 2024. However, month-on-month food inflation rose to 1.13 percent from a contraction of 0.37 percent in October, driven by price increases in staples including dried tomatoes, cassava tubers, pepper, eggs, and onions.
Urban-Rural Divide
The inflation data revealed a notable disparity between urban and rural areas. Urban inflation stood at 13.61 percent year-on-year, while rural inflation registered higher at 15.15 percent. More significantly, rural areas experienced sharper month-on-month price acceleration at 1.88 percent, compared to 0.95 percent in urban centers, suggesting stronger inflationary pressures in Nigeria’s countryside.
At the state level, Rivers recorded the highest year-on-year inflation at 17.78 percent, followed by Ogun at 17.65 percent and Ekiti at 16.77 percent. Plateau enjoyed the lowest rate at 9.13 percent, with Kebbi and Katsina also recording single-digit inflation.
Private Sector Responds with Cautious Optimism
Business leaders across Nigeria’s organized private sector welcomed the sustained inflation decline while emphasizing the need for continued government intervention, particularly for micro, small, and medium enterprises.
Leye Kupoluyi, president of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, described the trend as positive for consumer purchasing power. “When inflation keeps going down, it will impact the purchasing power of people, and when people can spend money, that is what the business, the private sector, wants,” Kupoluyi explained.
He attributed the moderation to fading shocks from fuel subsidy removal, improved petroleum market stability, and marginal oil price improvements supporting foreign inflows. Kupoluyi predicted that if the trend continues, Nigerians could experience broader economic improvements by the first quarter of 2026, with the Consumer Price Index declining as Gross Domestic Product rises.
Dr. Femi Egbesola, President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, noted that while easing inflation would boost consumer purchasing power and support MSME sales, smaller businesses risked being left behind as investment flows primarily to larger, more structured corporations.
“The Nigerian economy, particularly MSMEs, still needs support, especially access to funding through government intervention,” Egbesola stressed. “Targeted credit facilities are critical to ensure small businesses can compete and grow.”
Segun Kuti-George, National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, described the slowdown as “a reflection of disciplined fiscal and monetary policies,” citing retained monetary policy parameters, increased agricultural supply, stable energy prices, and a relatively stable exchange rate as key factors.
Agricultural Support Remains Critical
Multiple stakeholders emphasized agriculture’s central role in sustaining the disinflationary trend. Kupoluyi called for structured agricultural support, noting that subsidies—whether direct or through inputs and market creation—remain essential globally to ensure farmers don’t lose the value of their labor.
“The more food we make available, the more inflation will keep going down,” he said, urging the government to reopen agriculture to large-scale participation alongside sustained infrastructure investment.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, stood at 18.04 percent year-on-year in November, down from 28.75 percent in November 2024, suggesting that underlying price pressures are also moderating across the broader economy.
As Nigeria navigates its economic transformation, the sustained inflation decline offers a glimmer of hope, though experts agree that maintaining momentum will require continued policy discipline, targeted support for small businesses, and strategic investment in agriculture and infrastructure.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nigeria’s inflation has dropped significantly to 14.45% in November 2025, down from 16.05% in October and a dramatic fall from 34.60% a year earlier—signaling that economic reforms are working. However, while this eases pressure on consumers and businesses, the private sector warns that small and medium enterprises still urgently need government-backed credit facilities to compete and grow.
Food prices remain the biggest inflation driver, making continued investment in agriculture critical to sustaining this positive trend. If momentum holds, Nigerians could see real economic improvements by early 2026.
