In its latest Africa Pulse report, titled “Improving Governance and Delivering for People in Africa,” released on Friday, the World Bank warned that current social safety nets aimed at alleviating economic hardship in Nigeria may fall short of lifting millions out of poverty.
The report highlights Nigeria’s disproportionate burden, accounting for 19% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s poverty, ahead of the Democratic Republic of Congo (14%), Ethiopia (9%), and Sudan (6%).
The analysis comes amid economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu’s administration, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the liberalization of the foreign exchange market. These policies have worsened inflation and deepened poverty, with the number of Nigerians living in poverty surging from 104 million to 129 million within a year.
Despite projecting moderate GDP growth of 3.6% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026–2027, the World Bank cautioned that poverty levels could climb further over the next two years, particularly in resource-rich nations like Nigeria, which face headwinds from volatile oil prices.
Resource-rich countries are anticipated to lag in poverty reduction, with fragile economies such as Nigeria and the DRC likely to see poverty rates rise by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report stated. By contrast, non-resource-dependent African nations are expected to grow faster and reduce poverty more effectively.
The bank noted that Nigeria’s gradual economic recovery hinges on growth in the service sector, including finance, ICT, and transportation, as well as a modest rebound in oil production aligned with OPEC+ quotas. However, this outlook was tempered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which recently downgraded Nigeria’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.0% (from 3.4% in 2024), citing reduced oil output and rising global trade tensions.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nigeria’s economic reforms under President Tinubu have unleashed a wave of inflation and poverty, with 129 million Nigerians now living below the poverty line.
The World Bank’s Africa Pulse report highlights the inadequacy of current social safety nets and the risks of rising poverty in resource-rich nations like Nigeria.
While moderate growth is projected for 2025–2027, volatile oil prices, weak governance, and global trade tensions pose significant risk. Nigeria must strengthen governance, expand social protection, and diversify its economy.
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