Oil prices dipped slightly on Monday, with Brent crude futures falling 18 cents, or 0.27%, to $66.29 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropping 15 cents, or 0.23%, to $64.43 as of 06:44 GMT.
The decline followed disappointing economic data from China, though prices retained most of last week’s gains as markets awaited high-stakes U.S.-China trade talks in London later today.
China, the world’s second-largest economy, reported a slowdown in export growth to a three-month low in May, hampered by U.S. tariffs. Factory-gate deflation also deepened to its worst level in two years, signaling mounting economic pressure.
Adding to concerns, China’s crude oil imports fell to a four-month low in May due to widespread refinery maintenance, dampening demand expectations. “Bad timing for crude oil, which was testing the top of the range,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore, noting WTI’s failure to break above $65.
Despite the dip, optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-China trade deal tempered losses. Brent and WTI had climbed 4% and 6.2%, respectively, last week—their first weekly gains in three—fueled by hopes that a trade resolution could bolster global economic growth and oil demand.
A steady U.S. jobs report for May, signaling possible Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, further supported last week’s rally.
However, the prospect of increased OPEC+ supply looms large. The group’s decision on May 31 to hike output significantly in July, with HSBC forecasting accelerated increases in August and September, poses downside risks to prices.
HSBC’s research note projected Brent at $65 per barrel by Q4 2025, while Capital Economics suggested OPEC+’s faster production rises are likely permanent.
WTI’s discount to Brent has narrowed, driven by modest U.S. supply growth, potential output declines in 2025, and increased OPEC+ production. Supply concerns also emerged after wildfires disrupted Canadian oil production, while robust U.S. fuel demand during the summer driving season lent support.
Baker Hughes reported a drop of nine U.S. oil rigs to 442 last week, hinting at future output constraints.
As investors await the outcome of today’s trade talks, the balance between demand optimism and rising supply will likely dictate oil’s near-term trajectory.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Oil prices dipped slightly on June 9, 2025, with Brent crude at $66.29 and WTI at $64.43, driven by weak Chinese economic data, including slowed export growth and reduced crude imports.
Despite retaining most of last week’s gains, the anticipated U.S.-China trade talks in London, which could bolster global economic growth and oil demand, could potentially offset pressures from increased OPEC+ supply and economic challenges in China.
