Nigeria’s economy demonstrated resilience in the opening quarter of 2025, with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reporting a significant surge in export revenues that helped the country maintain its positive trade momentum despite challenging global economic conditions.
Strong Export Performance Drives Growth
The West African economic powerhouse recorded total exports of N20.598 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, marking a notable 7.42 percent increase from the N19.176 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
This performance also represents a 2.92 percent quarterly improvement from the N20.01 trillion achieved in the final quarter of 2024, signaling a sustained growth trajectory.
The export surge comes against the backdrop of economic projections that had warned of potential pressures on the naira and GDP growth challenges, making these figures particularly significant for policymakers and investors tracking Nigeria’s economic recovery.
Import Trends Show Mixed Signals
While exports flourished, Nigeria’s import story presents a more nuanced picture. Total imports reached N15.43 trillion in Q1 2025, representing a 4.59 percent year-on-year increase from N14.75 trillion in Q1 2024.
However, imports declined by 7.02 percent compared to the previous quarter’s N16.59 trillion, suggesting either improved import substitution policies or tighter foreign exchange controls affecting purchasing patterns.
This import moderation contributed significantly to Nigeria’s robust trade surplus of N5.17 trillion in the first quarter, representing a remarkable 51.07 percent increase compared to the preceding quarter. Such a substantial trade surplus provides crucial foreign exchange earnings for a country that has historically grappled with balance of payments challenges.
Crude Oil Maintains Dominance Despite Diversification Efforts
Despite years of economic diversification rhetoric, Nigeria’s export profile remains heavily skewed toward petroleum products. Crude oil dominated the export landscape with revenues of N12.96 trillion, accounting for 62.89 percent of total exports.
This heavy reliance on oil revenues continues to expose the economy to global commodity price volatility.
Non-crude oil exports, while secondary, showed encouraging signs with N7.64 trillion in revenues, representing 37.11 percent of total exports. Within this category, non-oil products contributed N3.17 trillion, or 15.38 percent of total exports, indicating gradual progress in economic diversification efforts.
The export composition by sectors reveals Nigeria’s comparative advantages beyond oil. Mineral products led with N17.56 trillion (85.23 percent), followed by prepared foodstuffs, beverages, spirits, vinegar, and tobacco products worth N1.43 trillion (6.94 percent). Chemical and allied industries contributed N869.50 billion, representing 4.22 percent of the total export value.
China Solidifies Position as Nigeria’s Top Trading Partner
Nigeria’s trading relationships continue to reflect global economic realities, with China maintaining its position as the country’s largest import partner. Imports from China totaled N4.66 trillion, representing 30.19 percent of total imports, underscoring the deep economic ties between Africa’s largest economy and the world’s second-largest economy.
India emerged as the second-largest import source with N1.72 trillion (11.13 percent), followed by the United States at N1.42 trillion (9.22 percent). The Netherlands and the United Arab Emirates rounded out the top five, with import values of N809.83 billion (5.25 percent) and N617.18 billion (4.00 percent), respectively.
Regional Export Patterns Highlight Global Integration
Nigeria’s export destinations reveal a balanced global footprint, with Europe leading as the primary market, absorbing goods worth N8.64 trillion, or 41.96 percent of total exports. Asia followed closely with N6.75 trillion (32.79 percent), while American markets accounted for N3.33 trillion (16.16 percent) of exports.
Intra-African Trade Shows Promise but Remains Limited
Despite continental integration initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), intra-African trade remains modest, with exports to African countries totaling N1.85 trillion, representing just 9.0 percent of Nigeria’s total exports. However, regional integration within ECOWAS showed stronger performance, with goods worth N1.07 trillion (57.58 percent of total African exports) traded within the economic bloc.
South Africa emerged as Nigeria’s largest African trading partner, importing goods worth N708.69 billion, followed by Ivory Coast (N428.56 billion), Senegal (N346.26 billion), Togo (N134.80 billion), and Ghana (N122.07 billion). These five countries collectively accounted for 93.91 percent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa.
On the import side, Angola led Nigeria’s African suppliers with N224.39 billion, followed by Togo (N132.31 billion) and South Africa (N125.38 billion). Algeria and Egypt contributed N124.39 billion and N90.21 billion, respectively.
Economic Implications and Outlook
Nigeria’s total merchandise trade reached N36.024 trillion in Q1 2025, representing substantial economic activity that supports the country’s GDP growth projections. The strong trade performance comes at a critical time when fiscal projections suggest Nigeria’s budget deficit could widen to 4.2% of GDP in 2025-2026, making export revenues increasingly vital for macroeconomic stability.
The trade data suggests Nigeria’s economy is navigating global headwinds with relative success, though the continued heavy dependence on oil exports remains a structural vulnerability. The positive trade balance provides policymakers with crucial fiscal breathing room, but sustainable long-term growth will require accelerated diversification beyond the petroleum sector.
As Nigeria progresses through 2025, maintaining this export momentum while gradually shifting toward higher value-added non-oil exports will be critical for achieving the government’s economic transformation objectives and reducing vulnerability to commodity price shocks.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nigeria’s economy is performing well in the short term, generating substantial export revenues and maintaining positive trade momentum. But sustainable prosperity requires urgent diversification away from oil dependency and deeper integration with African markets. The current trade surplus provides a window of opportunity—the question is whether policymakers will use it to build a more resilient, diversified economic foundation for the future.
