The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its economic growth projection for Nigeria in 2025 to 3.0%, attributing the new forecast to a drop in global crude oil prices.
The new forecast was outlined in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, released during the ongoing IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.
The new forecast marks a 0.2 percentage point reduction from the Fund’s previous projection of 3.2%.
In the report, “sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to drop slightly from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025, before recovering modestly to 4.2% in 2026.
“Among the larger economies, the growth forecast for Nigeria is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, owing to lower oil prices.”
The IMF also stated similar economic pressures affecting other major African economies: “For South Africa, the growth forecast has dropped by 0.5 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, indicating slowing momentum from a weaker-than-expected 2024 performance, deteriorating sentiment due to heightened uncertainty, intensification of protectionist policies, and a deeper slowdown in major economies.”
In an even sharper revision, the IMF drastically cut South Sudan’s 2025 growth forecast by 31.5 percentage points, attributing the steep reduction to delays in restarting oil production after damage to a critical pipeline
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