Nigeria’s merchandise trade rose to N41.44 trillion in Q2 2026, per the National Bureau of Statistics, a sign of resilience in external trade even as economists keep an eye on the naira and broader macroeconomic trends.
The figure represents a 5.61% increase from N39.24 trillion recorded in Q2 2025, underscoring steady year-on-year growth in the volume of goods flowing in and out of the country.
More strikingly, the quarter also delivered a sharp sequential jump, with trade rising 19.13% from the N34.79 trillion recorded in the preceding quarter, a pace of growth that suggests momentum is building rather than stalling as the year progresses.
The standout story in the data is the strength of Nigeria’s export performance. Exports accounted for 65.20% of total merchandise trade during the quarter, valued at N27.02 trillion, a dominant share that points to continued reliance on outbound trade likely still anchored by crude oil, though the full commodity breakdown is expected in subsequent NBS releases.
Year-on-year, the export value represents an 18.77% increase compared with the N22.75 trillion recorded in Q2 2025.
The quarter-on-quarter numbers are even more pronounced: exports increased by 27.64% from the N21.17 trillion recorded in Q1 2026, a rapid acceleration that will likely draw scrutiny from analysts eager to understand whether it reflects rising global commodity prices, exchange rate effects on naira-denominated figures, or a genuine expansion in trade volumes.
The trade figures land alongside other encouraging economic indicators from the NBS. Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.43% year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.23% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
The bureau noted that both the oil and non-oil sectors recorded growth during the quarter, expanding by 7.31% and 4.31% year-on-year respectively, while the agricultural sector grew by 4.39%, compared with 2.82% in the corresponding quarter of 2025. The industrial sector, by contrast, showed signs of cooling.
As is customary with these NBS releases, further details are expected to provide additional insight into the composition and drivers of the country’s trade performance during the period, including the breakdown between crude and non-crude exports, top trading partners, and the balance of trade once import figures are fully disaggregated.
Given that exports so heavily outweighed imports in the share of total trade, Nigeria likely posted another quarterly trade surplus, continuing a pattern seen in recent reporting periods.
For now, the headline number tells a story of an external trade sector gathering pace, one that policymakers will likely cite as evidence of economic resilience, even as questions remain about how much of the naira-value growth reflects real volume gains versus currency and price effects.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nigeria’s foreign trade hit N41.44 trillion in Q2 2026, up 19.13% from the previous quarter, driven overwhelmingly by exports, which made up 65.20% of total trade and grew 27.64% quarter-on-quarter.
This is an export-led surge, not a balanced trade expansion, meaning Nigeria’s external trade strength right now hinges heavily on how much the country sells abroad rather than a broader pickup in overall commerce.
